Statistics Canada issued its model-based crop forecasts, which featured significant upside revisions to its wheat and canola crop pegs. StatCan raised its wheat crop estimate 2 MMT to 31 MMT and its canola estimate from 19.2 MMT to 21.0 MMT, based on satellite and agro-climate data.
Pro Farmer Canada Editor Mike Jubinville says there had been a consensus that the Aug. 31 StatCan production report that is based on a late-July farmer survey understated crop potential. “The whisper numbers of the trade had been canola 20 MMT or so and all wheat at 31 MMT,” he explains. These new estimates from Canada are more in line with USDA’s forecasts earlier this month for a Canadian wheat crop of 31.5 MMT and a canola crop of 21.1 MMT.
Today’s report now has people wondering if the crop could be even bigger still, according to Jubinville. But he also points out that Canada has dealt with harvest issues of late, including a wet harvest season for much of the Prairies and multiple days of early snow in central and northern areas of Alberta. While this is unlikely to cut the yield, the quality of the crop may be downgraded, according to Jubinville.