Ahead of the Open: Strong Weekly Soybean Export Sales

Posted on 04/19/2018 8:04 AM

Crop calls

Corn: Steady to 1 cent lower
Soybeans: Steady to 2 cents higher
Wheat: 2 to 5 cents higher

Wheat futures were firmer overnight, while corn and soybeans softened. But we are expecting buyer interest to increase in soybeans to start daytime trade after strong weekly export sales.

Weekly soybean export sales totaled 1.041 MMT for 2017-18 and 1.091 MMT for 2018-19. Old-crop sales were within expectations, but new-crop sales easily topped expectations. There have been no daily soybean export sales since April 11.

Wheat futures will be supported by weather. While forecasts continue to call for rains in the Southern Plains through Saturday, forecasters have dialed back expected amounts. Old-crop wheat export sales were disappointing with a net sales reduction of 66,900 MT, though sales of 240,400 MT for 2018-19 topped expectations.

Corn export sales were in line with expectations at 1.092 MMT for old-crop and 112,200 MT for new-crop.

 

Livestock calls                                                                      

Cattle: Mixed
Hogs:  Higher

Live cattle futures posted gains yesterday on hopes of higher cash cattle trade. Cattle traded at $120 to $122 at the online Fed Cattle Exchange, which was up from last week. But light trade in Nebraska started at steady to lower prices compared to where cattle traded in the state last week. As a result, buyer interest in futures could be limited. In addition to focusing on cash trade, traders will begin evening positions for Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.  

Lean hog futures finished strong Wednesday on support from rising cash hog prices. The average national direct cash price rose $1.92 yesterday and the cash index is projected up $1.03 today (for April 17). That should fuel followthrough buying on the open. But traders may not want to aggressively build the premium summer-month hogs hold to the cash index.

Beef export sales for the week ended April 12 totaled 19,900 MT, down 9% from the previous week but up 18% from the four-week average.

Weekly pork export sales of 17,900 MT were down 18% from the previous week and 12% from the four-week average.

 

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