Ahead of the Open: Mildly Weaker Start to the Week in Grains

Posted on 01/08/2018 7:24 AM

Crop calls

Corn: Steady to fractionally lower
Soybeans: 2 to 4 cents lower
Wheat: 2 to 3 cents lower

Soybean futures were weaker overnight despite disappointing rains in Argentina over the weekend. Forecasts call for hot temps and limited rainfall early this week, but rainfall chances are greater this weekend and next week. Meanwhile, weather remains mostly favorable in Brazil, aside from far southern and far northeastern growing regions.

Wheat futures continued the price pullback overnight that started late last week. While there are still dryness concerns in the U.S. Southern Plains, the bitterly cold temps from last week have vacated the region, leaving the market with little fundamental support.

Corn futures were influenced by spillover from soybeans and wheat overnight. Given the lack of fresh news, corn will remain a follower during today’s session.

USDA reported daily sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt, 132,000 MT of soybeans to an unknown destination and 102,100 MT of corn to Mexico – all for 2017-18 delivery. That could help limit seller interest this morning.


Livestock calls

Cattle: Lower
Hogs: Mixed

Cattle futures are expected to face followthrough selling after a poor close last Friday. With the limit-down performance in February live cattle futures, daily trading limits are expanded to $4.50 today. But a round of corrective buying is possible if early seller interest is limited, as nearby futures are trading at a discount to the cash cattle market.

Lean hog futures are likely to see two-sided trade to kick off the week. The premium futures hold to the cash market will limit buying and could put some pressure on futures, especially if cash hog bids are weaker. Much warmer temps across the Midwest should bring more hogs to market this week. But traders will be comfortable with some futures premium as the cash index should work higher seasonally as market-ready supplies gradually ease.

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