Ahead of the Open: Light Trade Expected In Grain, Soy Futures

Posted on 03/21/2018 8:13 AM

Crop calls

Corn: Steady to 1 cent lower
Soybeans: 1 to 3 cents higher
Wheat: Mixed

Price action was light and two-sided overnight, with soybeans favoring the upside, corn steady to fractionally lower and wheat mixed as the session ended. We anticipate similar price action to start today’s session.

Rains remain in the forecast for central Argentina Friday and Saturday, but given the dry pattern through the growing season, there’s risk the rains won’t develop much as models currently suggest. Plus, the two-week outlook is dry aside from the coming two-day rain event. That is likely to encourage light buying in the soybean market.

Corn futures continue to struggle to find buyers, despite a pickup in export sales activity on the price pullback. USDA announced a daily sale of 138,000 MT of corn to South Korea for 2017-18.

Wheat futures are pausing after the recent, sharp price pullback. Fresh supportive news is needed to regenerate buyer interest. Supportive news is lacking this morning.


Livestock calls                                                                      

Cattle: Lower
Hogs: Lower

Live cattle futures are expected to face more selling pressure this morning even though the April contract finished around $6.50 lower than this week’s initial cash cattle trade at $126 in the Plains. Fears that demand won’t keep pace with building supplies during the second quarter are giving traders confidence to keep pressing futures lower. But the major discount to the cash market could trigger some corrective buying if seller interest eases.

Lean hog futures are also expected to see followthrough selling amid falling cash prices. While futures are oversold, the cash market is giving no signals a seasonal low is in place. Until that happens, it’s unlikely there will be much interest in traders covering short positions – at least not with any conviction.


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