Ahead of the Open: Improved Weather Outlook To Pressure Corn, Wheat

Posted on 04/20/2018 8:00 AM

Crop calls

Corn: 1 to 2 cents lower
Soybeans: 4 to 6 cents lower
Wheat: 6 to 8 cents lower

Seller interest picked up in the corn and soybean markets overnight after weaker closes Thursday. Wheat futures pulled back from gains earlier this week overnight. We anticipate a weaker start to trade in the grain and soybean markets this morning.

Pressure on soybeans will come from a lack of daily export sales this week. Export demand has slowed since April 11, the last day a daily export soybean sale was announced. In addition, traders think corn and spring wheat planting delays could push more acres to soybeans.

But forecasts signal improved weather is coming for the Corn Belt and Northern Plains, which should allow for some near-term planting progress.

In addition to the improved weather outlook for the Northern Plains, wheat futures will face pressure from forecast rains in the Southern Plains through Sunday. However, rain amounts are expected to be relatively light and warm, dry weather is expected next week.


Livestock calls                                                                      

Cattle: Lower
Hogs:  Higher

Cattle futures closed under heavy pressure and low-range Thursday, which is likely to trigger followthrough selling on the open this morning. But with cash cattle trade starting between $121 and $122 in Kansas and Texas, it wouldn’t surprise us to see a lower open attract buyers. Aside from the cash market, traders’ other focus today will be on positioning ahead of USDA’s Cattle on Feed Report this afternoon that’s expected to show On Feed at 107.5%, Placements at 90.3% and Marketings at 95.9% of year-ago levels.

Lean hog futures faced profit-taking yesterday as the market pulled back from recent gains. But with the cash market picking up steam, we expect buyers to resurface in hog futures, even with the big premium summer-month contracts hold to the cash index. The average national direct cash hog price surged $3.16 yesterday and the cash index is projected up 92 cents today (for April 18). And the cash hog market is expected to be solidly higher again this morning.


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