Inputs Market Update: Fertilizer Continues Lower

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:12 AM

NH3"

Gains tallied 2.29 to Declines' $7.46 in the regional averages.

Anhydrous ammonia led declines in this week's price survey, as was the case last week. But the rate of decline shallowed dramatically with NH3 down $2.20 by the short ton. Iowa fell $27.92 to post our most aggressive NH3 declines, which reflects the largest state to state price decline across our survey region. South Dakota potash fell $11.49, Wisconsin urea fell $9.14 and Minnesota UAN28% fell $8.35. All others were on either side of unchanged on all nutrients this week.

Fuels were supported by a 26 cent per gallon increase in Indiana farm diesel and a 21 cent per gallon increase in that same state on LP. Crude oil and heating oil have tested resistance and are timidly falling back toward the downside. Crude oil production outages and distillate inventory draws led to the test of resistance in both, NCIbut as supplies begin to rebalance, we should see lower prices near-term. That is expected to lead to mild price softness in farm diesel and we will take that opportunity to book a portion for fall fieldwork as we believe prices will firm into late summer.

Corn Futures -- December 2016 corn futures closed Friday, June 10 at $4.30 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $680.80 per acre -- higher $18.49/acre on the week. With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at $589.31 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread softened 18.51 points and now stands at -91.49. This means one acre of expected new-crop revenue is priced at a $91.49 premium to our Nutrient Composite Index.

 

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Nutrient/Fuel
5/31/16
6/6/16
Week-over Change
Current Week
Nutrient/Fuel
Anhydrous
$602.71
$585.22
-$2.20
$583.01
Anhydrous
DAP
$486.95
$481.07
-88 cents
$480.18
DAP
MAP
$500.28
$498.34
$2.23
$500.57
MAP
Potash
$352.23
$352.27
-$1.95
$350.32
Potash
UAN28
$280.44
$279.42
-41 cents
$279.00
UAN28
UAN32
$307.20
$299.69
-56 cents
$299.13
UAN32
Urea
$375.26
$372.01
-$1.46
$370.55
Urea
Farm Diesel
$1.82
$1.82
4 cents
$1.86
Farm Diesel
LP
$0.99
$0.98
2 cents
$1.00
LP
Composite
596.39
590.40
-1.09
589.31
Composite

 

NCISpreads

 


 

 

 

 

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