Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | NCI Slips as N Levels-off

Posted on 01/18/2018 11:25 AM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but slightly lower overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index softened 0.31 points to 504.85 compared to last year's 499.32.
  • Expected new-crop corn revenue fell this week, but remains slightly above $600 per acre.nitrogen indices

Nitrogen

  • Anhydrous ammonia was mildly higher, supported by strength in Missouri.
  • Urea was higher as well, but only by about $1 per short ton.
  • UAN28% is now at a decent discount to NH3 on an indexed basis, and while 32% is overpriced compared to anhydrous, 32% is unchanged on the week.
  • We continue to suspect nitrogen is working on a near-term top which will allow us to finish booking for spring/summer applications.
  • Despite strength in anhydrous and urea, declines in 28% have gains and declines within the nitrogen segment offsetting each other.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices moved in opposite directions with DAP falling as MAP continued higher.
  • The DAP/MAP spread is currently at 30.25, which is larger than our expectations.
  • Wholesale values are slightly higher on the week led by China and Tampa bids, each up $3 per short ton.pandk indices
  • As MAP continues to extend its premium to DAP, there is risk that DAP will eventually firm to right the outstanding margin. However, we believe there are equal chances that MAP will soften to narrow the range back to $15 to $20.
  • Either way, we are anxious for an opportunity to book phosphate for spring applications.

Potash

  • Potash prices were led lower by softness in Indiana and Illinois.
  • As with phosphate, there is a precedent for a seasonal decline, which will lend an opportunity to book for spring applications.
  • Supplies are ample, and world producers continue to pursue marketshare, which may weigh on near-term prices.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday, January 12 at $3.80 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $601.37 per acre -- down $7.85 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 504.85 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 5.47 points and now stands at -96.52.
Fertilizer
1/2/18
1/8/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$444.98
$446.55
+$1.76
$448.31
Anhydrous
DAP
$454.54
$456.88
-$1.58
$455.30
DAP
MAP
$477.97
$478.92
+$6.62
$485.55
MAP
Potash
$332.08
$333.80
-$2.13
$331.68
Potash
UAN28
$225.32
$222.35
-$4.31
$218.05
UAN28
UAN32
$244.80
$244.74
Unchanged
$244.74
UAN32
Urea
$350.00
$350.00
+$1.02
$351.02
Urea
Composite
506.96
505.16
-0.31
504.85
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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