Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Fertilizer's Uptrend Flattens

Posted on 10/09/2018 12:07 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mostly higher with anhydrous and potash leading gains.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 0.94 points to 559.53. This compares to our 5-year average of 613.07 for this week.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Anhydrous ammonia led gains in the nitrogen segment with Michigan and Minnesota each sharply higher to lead gains.
  • UAN, after having spent some weeks running in concert with NH3, fall to a slight discount to NH3 when considered on an Indexed basis, and more closely mirrored urea's price action than that of anhydrous ammonia.
  • Of note, UAN328% and 32% are priced in-line with each other, almost at complete parity.
  • We continue to expect seasonal price risk in anhydrous for the remainder of harvest season, but if the weather doesn't straighten out, harvest delays could push fall nitrogen demand into spring, especially if the transition from fall to winter is as quick as the transition from summer weather to fall weather patterns.

Phosphatepandk indices chart

  • DAP and MAP were both lower on the week with DAP off roughly twice as much as MAP.
  • Both DAP and MAP are priced well above anhydrous ammonia and MAP is, in fact, priced above expected new-crop corn revenue when considered on an indexed basis.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale DAP and MAP prices moved sideways to lower at U.S. terminals in the week ended Oct. 5.
  • Since P&K applications are more popular than nitrogen application sin the fall, seasonal price strength will continue until post-harvest demand is satisfied.
  • Also, supportive, sulphur prices are steady on the week at a level 63.5% above the same time last year.

Potash

  • Potash prices were higher on the week with most states higher, but only by less than $2 per short ton.
  • Wholesale values reported by MosaicCo in the week ended Oct. 5 were modestly higher at U.S. terminals.
  • As with phosphates, potash demand for fall applications is generally high. Once seasonal demand is satisfied, we expect potash prices to fall.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday October 4 at $4.00 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $648.75 per acre -- firmer $15.57 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 559.53 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread widened 14.63 points and now stands at -89.22.
Fertilizer
9/24/18
10/1/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$494.10
$500.14
+$6.35
$506.48
Anhydrous
DAP
$510.24
$516.58
-$1.70
$514.87
DAP
MAP
$523.93
$527.78
-79 cents
$526.99
MAP
Potash
$350.64
$354.23
+$1.49
$355.72
Potash
UAN28
$240.22
$243.36
+32 cents
$243.67
UAN28
UAN32
$262.07
$262.42
+13 cents
$262.54
UAN32
Urea
$379.21
$389.90
+15 cents
$390.06
Urea
Composite
551.84
558.59
+0.94
559.53
Composite

nutrient composite index chart

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