Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Anhydrous Softens

Posted on 03/12/2018 4:17 PM

 

  • Once again our weekly survey yielded higher fertilizer prices on the week.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 1.06 points to 543.67, nearly twice last week's gain. This compares to last year's 528.32.
  • You should be 100% filled on nitrogen, phosphate and potassium for spring/summer applications.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Urea was our upside leader in the nitrogen segment this week with UAN28% up by about half as much.
  • Anhydrous ammonia was lower on the week, falling about a buck and a half.
  • UAN32% led declines, falling a solid $6.63 per short ton.
  • This week's price action featured very few unchanged prices in all four of the nitrogen products in our survey as dealers complete offseason refill and refresh price points.
  • Long-term demand concerns are beginning to surface in the outlooks of some nitrogen producers. We will take a closer look in this week's TheNFiles.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were higher with MAP adding sharp gains.
  • The DAP/MAP spread continues to widen, now at $40.15, which suggests higher DAP prices ahead.
  • Wholesale DAP prices were mixed to slightly higher at U.S. terminals. Wholesale MAP fell moderately on the week. Phosphate rock, sulfur and ammonia -- all feedstocks for phosphate production -- ranp and k indices sideways on the week. While lower inputs for phosphate producers will eventually lead to lower phosphate prices, it will take some time before that shows up in retail pricing... especially considering feedstock prices aren't actually lower... just sideways, but its a start.

Potash

  • Potash prices firmed slightly but remain tethered to parity with NH3 on an indexed basis.
  • Wholesale potash was higher in Brazil, but tracked sideways at NOLA and actually softened at Corn Belt terminals.
  • Reports of a cave in at a Belorussian potassium mine made some waves in the value of stocks in a few select companies, but that strength will likely be short-lived. We will discuss this further in this week's P&KToday.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Friday, March 9 at $4.07 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $649.40 per acre -- up $5.10 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 544.37 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread favors fertilizer buyers, widening 4.04 points and now stands at -105.03.
Fertilizer
2/28/18
3/5/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$505.83
$508.88
-$1.52
$507.36
Anhydrous
DAP
$472.12
$472.16
+$1.71
$473.87
DAP
MAP
$506.71
$507.26
+$6.76
$514.02
MAP
Potash
$342.96
$341.72
+$1.68
$343.40
Potash
UAN28
$230.21
$230.72
+$1.36
$232.08
UAN28
UAN32
$260.65
$266.65
-$6.63
$260.02
UAN32
Urea
$367.36
$369.98
+$3.91
$373.89
Urea
Composite
540.64
543.31
+1.06
544.37
Composite

composite index

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