Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | Anhydrous Leads Fertilizer Higher

Posted on 04/24/2018 11:58 AM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed on the week but declines in DAP, potash and UAN28% were eclipsed by strength in NH3.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 1.64 points to 555.37. This compares to last year's 534.13.

Nitrogen

  • Anhydrous ammonia was our clear upside price leader across our entire survey this week.nitrogen indices chart
  • UAN32% and urea were higher as well, but only slightly so.
  • UAN28% was lower and has fallen below parity with NH3. This has historically been a bullish signal for near-term nitrogen prices, suggesting the worst may not be over for spring N. We will discuss this further in this week's TheNFiles.

Phosphate

  • Phosphate prices were mixed on the week with MAP higher and DAP lower.
  • This week's price action widens the already wide DAP/MAP spread to 32.57.
  • The midpoint of DAP and MAP is at $501.21 1/2. We have been watching the $500 midpoint and ADP and MAP appear to be equally spaced from that point.
  • Wholesale DAP was sideways to slightly higher at U.S. terminals last week and MAP was reported slightly lower.

Potash

  • Potash prices softened around a buck on the week.p and k indices chart
  • Wholesale values are sideways at U.S. terminals on the week.
  • From a relational perspective, potash has moved to a discount to NH3. We will discuss this in further detail in this week's P&KToday, but there is a story in that relationship that suggests more upside risk for NH3.

Corn Futures

  • December 2018 corn futures closed Thursday, April 20 at $4.02 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $640.90 per acre -- lower $18.70 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 555.37 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread favors fertilizer buyers, narrowing 20.34 points and now stands at -85.53.
Fertilizer
4/9/18
4/16/18
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$516.02
$517.04
+$7.55
$524.59
Anhydrous
DAP
$484.00
$486.64
-$1.71
$484.93
DAP
MAP
$516.80
$515.86
+$1.63
$517.50
MAP
Potash
$346.82
$346.95
-$1.04
$345.90
Potash
UAN28
$243.82
$244.74
-$1.62
$243.11
UAN28
UAN32
$265.39
$268.08
+$4.56
$272.64
UAN32
Urea
$369.69
$370.31
+10 cents
$370.41
Urea
Composite
552.09
553.73
+1.64
555.37
Composite

nci chart

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