P&K Today | Summer Sulphur to Drive Offseason Price

Posted on 04/20/2018 12:11 PM

 

  • DAP $39.07 above year-ago pricing -- higher $2.64/st on the week to $486.64/st.
  • MAP $46.07 above year-ago -- lower 94 cents/st this week to $515.86/st.
  • Potash $13.55 above year-ago -- higher 12 cents/st this week to $346.95/st.

DAP led gains in the P&K complex this week with Nebraska up $18.70, Wisconsin gained $7.69 and Ohio added $6.02. Four states were unchanged as Michigan fell $9.23 and Minnesota dropped 49 cents per short ton.phosphate price chart

Potash was higher on the week with Illinois up $3.35 and Wisconsin gained $2.08. Three states were unchanged as Michigan fell $2.98 as Ohio softened $1.09.

MAP was lower on the week led by Wisconsin, off $30.00 per short ton and Nebraska down $3.47. Five states were unchanged as Iowa gained $19.67 and Kansas firmed $1.87.

Phosphates remain overpriced compared to the rest of the fertilizers in our survey, but both DAP and MAP are priced below expected new-crop corn revenue on an indexed basis. This week's retail price action is reflective of softer wholesale MAP bids and sideways o higher wholesale DAP. However, phosphate prices are not likely to correct lower in a meaningful way at least until late summer.

The DAP/MAP spread remains very wide, just below $30 with $500 still at the midpoint. Once spring demand is satisfied, retail prices will be subject to a reset as dealers refill inventories. We foresee two major factors that will potash price chartdetermine phosphate's summer price action. The first is the cost of feedstock sulphur, which is up 65.7% year-on-year. While ammonia and phosphate rock are both priced below year-ago, sulphur prices will have to ease to open the door to the downside for retail phosphate.

The second factor is supply. With northern spring fieldwork delayed, there is risk demand will be funneled into a very short period of time. The result could be a run on phosphate which has the potential to strain local supplies, injecting upside risk to retail prices.

So while near-term upside risk persists on the basis of seasonal demand, down the road, we will be looking for sulphur prices to fall as a signal of pending price relief.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended April 13, 2018.

DAP is priced at 50 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 48 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 28 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 4/18/2018

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.50 1/2
$0.48 1/2
$0.28 1/2
Average
Year-ago
$0.46 3/4
$0.44
$0.28 1/4
Year-ago

p and k indices chart


 

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