P&K Today | Phosphates Firm as Vitamin K Falls

Posted on 11/30/2017 1:12 PM

 

  • DAP $1.03 below year-ago pricing -- higher 24 cents/st on the week to $440.41/st.
  • MAP 24 cents above year-ago -- higher 9 cents/st this week to $445.54/st.
  • Potash $20.97 above year-ago -- lower 66 cents/st this week to $325.16/st.

DAP led gains in the P&K segment although only Illinois posted a price change, up $2.60 per short ton. All other states were unchanged.phosphate price chart

MAP firmed on strength in Illinois to the tune of $7.35. Eight of twelve states were unchanged as South Dakota softened $4.62, North Dakota dropped $1.64 and Minnesota fell 7 cents per short ton.

Potash was lower on the week led by Kansas, which fell $7.49 and Minnesota fell 74 cents per short ton. Nine states were unchanged as Illinois gained 30 cents on the week.

In case you missed our posts from earlier this week, we noted most states were unchanged across the board and we believe that is because most of our reporting locations were closed on Thursday and Friday of last week in observance of the Thanksgiving holiday. Even though I an writing from a "low volume" week, the trends we have anticipated remain in place. That is true for nitrogen, and it is also true for P&K.

We have noted the great disparity between anhydrous ammonia and urea and tagged world urea prices as the reason for the wide price gap between the two. Anhydrous, meanwhile is uniquely popular in the United States, and is less susceptible to pricing around the world. The same forces that have urea overpriced compared to anhydrous ammonia also support phosphate prices.potash price chart

If we look at our indexed fertilizer prices, which use anhydrous as the standard bearer, phosphate is currently priced much more closely to urea than it is to anhydrous. I suspect that illustrates the power of the world market to influence those fertilizers which are most in demand worldwide, as opposed to NH3, which is something of a "boutique" nitrogen form, unique to the U.S.

Nitrogen production in the U.S. is increasing dramatically, but the growing price disparity between anhydrous and urea, with phosphates in tow, demonstrates precisely that point. Were DAP/MAP demand more unique to the United States, I believe phosphates would be priced more closely to anhydrous than to urea.

We maintain our near-term P&K outlook, which calls for lower prices after the first of the year, when we expect to find opportunities to book for spring applications.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended November 24, 2017.

DAP is priced at 46 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 41 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 27 1/2 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 11/30/2017

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.46
$0.41 1/2
$0.27 1/2
Average
Year-ago
$0.46
$0.41 1/2
$0.25 1/2
Year-ago

pandk indices


 

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