Fertilizer Bulletin | DAP Leads Weekly Gains

Posted on 03/11/2019 3:45 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but higher overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 2.08 points to 612.88.

Nitrogennitrogen indices chart

  • Nitrogen prices were mixed but led higher by gains in anhydrous ammonia. Minnesota led NH3 prices to the upside with a $32 per short ton corrective move. I call it a corrective move because the increase aligned Minnesota NH3 prices with the regional average price.
  • UAN32 was higher as well, gaining less than a dollar per short ton regionally on the week, although most states posted steady UAN32 price action on the week.
  • UAN28 led declines within the nitrogen segment with Minnesota correcting to the downside add pressure on the regional average bid.
  • Urea was lower by 28 cents per short ton. Only one state was unchanged on urea this week, but gains and declines all but offset each other.
  • In general, we expect anhydrous ammonia to level off at current levels. We believe there is some downside potential in urea, and the greatest measure of upside risk lies in UAN solutions as both are underpriced compared to NH3 and urea.p and k indices chart

Phosphate

  • Phosphates were higher with DAP leading overall gains within our survey this week.
  • DAP firmed $10.63 per short ton regionally led by corrective action in Iowa.
  • MAP was up only slightly with 5 states of 12 unchanged.
  • Wholesale DAP and MAP were lower at US terminals in the week ended March 4, according to MosaicCo.
  • Both DAP and MAP remain overpriced compared to anhydrous ammonia, but we see little downside potential as there is no impetus for prices to fall.

Potash

  • Potash prices fell slightly on the week led by declines in Nebraska and Missouri.
  • According to MosaicCo., wholesale potash prices were steady at NOLA and lower in the corn belt during the report week.
  • Potash has a measure of upside risk currently baked in as it is priced well below anhydrous ammonia when considered on an indexed basis. But spring supply availability will likely drive price action more than K's relationship to anhydrous prices.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday March 8 at $3.88 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $627.99 per acre -- lower $10.38 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 612.88 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 24.57 points and now stands at -15.11.
Fertilizer
2/25/19
3/4/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$606.58
$606.61
+$3.57
$610.19
Anhydrous
DAP
$516.09
$515.59
+$10.63
$526.23
DAP
MAP
$541.31
$537.91
+41 cents
$538.32
MAP
Potash
$383.25
$384.64
-24 cents
$384.40
Potash
UAN28
$283.73
$282.26
-$1.62
$280.64
UAN28
UAN32
$311.08
$311.37
+73 cents
$312.09
UAN32
Urea
$411.23
$409.08
-28 cents
$408.80
Urea
Composite
612.01
610.80
+2.08
612.88
Composite

Nutrient Composite Index chart

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