Pro Farmer's Daily Advice Monitor

Posted on 02/20/2019 12:37 PM
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  • Feb. 20: Extend corn-for-feed coverage. Roll orders/targets to sell more old-crop corn, soybeans and wheat to May. Details below. 

  • Feb. 19: No changes. 

  • Feb. 15: No changes. 

  • Feb. 14: No changes. 

  • Feb. 13: No changes. 

*Note: Check below daily to see if we recommend catch-up sales for individual markets. 

 
Corn
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 25% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

 

We rolled our standing order to sell more old-crop corn tot he May contract. You should have a standing order to sell 15% of 2018-crop in the cash market if May corn futures hit $3.90. You should also have an order to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if December corn futures hit $4.13. Get current with advised sales when May futures are above $3.85. 


Soybeans
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 20% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 40% sold
2019 crop: 30% sold via HTAs for harvest delivery

Hedgers - futures/options

 

35% hedge in July soybean futures at $8.96.

We rolled our standing order to sell more old-crop soybeans to the May contract. You should have standing orders to sell 10% of 2018-crop if May soybean futures hit $9.50 and to sell another 10% if futures hit $9.74. You should also have standing orders to sell 10% of expected 2019-crop via hedge-to-arrive contracts for harvest delivery if November futures hit $9.75 and to sell another 10% via HTAs for harvest delivery if futures hit $10.00.  


Wheat
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 55% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 65% sold
2019 crop: 15% sold 

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

We lowered our target for selling more old-crop wheat to $5.25 in May SRW futures. Wait on a price recovery to get current with 2018-crop sales. Additional 2019-crop sales would come at the same time.


Cotton
Cash-only marketers

2018 crop: 50% sold

Hedgers -- cash sales

 

2018 crop: 50% sold

Hedgers - futures/options

 

No positions

Wait on an extended correction to get current with advised sales. We are targeting a rebound to the 76.00 cent mark to increase old-crop sales.  

Livestock
Cattle

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
Fed cattle producers should carry all risk in the cash market for now as futures and the cash market are trending higher. Be prepared to add second-quarter hedges on signs of a market top. 
Hogs

1st qtr. 2019

0%

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

Continue to carry all risk in the cash market. We feel the downside is overdone.  


Feed
Corn

1st qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through mid-April.

2nd qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through mid-April.

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%
On Feb. 20, we extended corn-for-feed coverage another two weeks in the cash market through mid-April. 
Meal

1st qtr. 2019

Coverage in cash through March.

2nd qtr. 2019

0%

3rd qtr. 2019

0%

4th qtr. 2019

0%

You should have all soybean meal needs covered in the cash market through the end of March. Our target for extending coverage into spring would be a drop to the $305 level in May futures. 

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