Weekly Farm Fuels Bulletin | Diesel Steady as Propane Softens Slightly

Posted on 07/31/2018 11:02 AM

 

Farm Dieseldiesel price chart

  • Farm diesel was unchanged on the week with only Michigan and Kansas posting price changes.
  • September WTI crude oil opened at $70.05 this morning (Tuesday) but has since fallen back below $70 which is proving to be a pivotal price point.
  • August heating oil futures have acted similarly, opening this morning at $2.17 and falling through mid-morning to $2.15.
  • Distillate supplies reported by EIA fell 100,000 barrels in the week ended July 20, now below the five-year average and 28.4 million barrels below the same time last year.
  • Our farm diesel/heating oil futures spread indicates mild near-term upside risk (see chart at bottom).

Propane

  • Our average regional average propane price fell a penny on the week.propane price chart
  • National propane stocks fell 774,000 barrels in the week ended July 20 according to EIA... down 1.451 million barrels from the same time last year. Stocks are within the five-year average range, but near the low end.
  • We still expect propane prices to soften regionally, but our forecasts for a 15 to 20 cent year-on-year rise appear to be materializing.

Fuel
7/16/18
7/23/18
Week-over Change
Current Week
Fuel
Farm Diesel
$2.56
$2.56
Unchanged
$2.56
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.30
$1.28
-1 cent
$1.27
LP

Our farm diesel/heating oil futures spread compares the weekly average retail farm diesel price with front-month heating oil futures as of the close on the previous Friday. A move below the "line in the sand" indicates pending upside risk. A move above our "line in the sand" indicates downside potential.


farm diesel heating oil futures spread

 

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