Weekly Farm Fuels Bulletin | Diesel & LP Give Up a Few Cents

Posted on 07/10/2018 12:07 PM

 

Farm Dieselfarm diesel price chart

  • Farm diesel fell a penny per gallon on the week.
  • North Dakota led declines falling 8 cents per gallon.
  • WTI crude oil futures are mildly oversold. Last week we contended that condition may be remedied by time rather than price. But chart watchers are hesitant to get too bullish with futures above $70 per barrel especially given WTI's failure to post a close above $75. To them, that hints at a pending downside correction.
  • Heating oil futures have trended higher in recent weeks, following WTI to the upside. According to EIA, distillate supplies are below the bottom end of the 5-year average range which will remain supportive for diesel prices.

Propanepropane price chart

  • Propane prices fell 2 cents his week with Indiana off 8 cents per gallon to lead the decline.
  • No state posted a higher price on the week as seasonal price pressure begins to erode our regional average bid.
  • National propane stocks reported by EIA are at the low end of the 5-year average range due in part to increased export demand.
  • This week's average propane price is a dime higher than the same week last year. In recent years, LP has fully bottomed sometime in August, generally toward the end of the month. We expect the same to be true this year.

Fuel
6/25/18
7/2/18
Week-over Change
Current Week
Fuel
Farm Diesel
$2.55
$2.55
-1 cent
$2.54
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.33
$1.33
-2 cents
$1.31
LP

Our farm diesel/heating oil futures spread compares the weekly average retail farm diesel price with front-month heating oil futures as of the close on the previous Friday. A move below the "line in the sand" indicates pending upside risk. A move above our "line in the sand" indicates downside potential.

farm diesel heating oil spread chart


 

 

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