Weekly Farm Fuels Bulletin | Diesel Dives as Propane Gains

Posted on 01/10/2019 4:13 PM

diesel price chart

Farm Diesel -- NOTE: we expect to lock in diesel for spring very soon, likely next week. We advise you get in touch with your preferred retailer and collect local bids. If the price seems right to you, go ahead and book at least a portion for spring, and be looking out for further instructions from your Inputs Monitor in the days to come.

  • Our regional average farm diesel price fell 9 cents per gallon on the week.
  • Ohio led declines falling 45 cents per gallon as Missouri careened 31 cents lower.
  • Minnesota posted the only price increase in our 12-state survey, up 3 cents per gallon to $2.39, which is not outrageously overpriced.
  • Heating oil futures have been trending higher since posting a short term low on the first of the new year. Crude oil began a price ascent roughly a week eia distillate stocks chartahead of that, which suggests the uptrends are worth heeding.
  • Since farm diesel price trends tend to lag crude oil and heating oil values by two to three weeks, we may get one more week of downside action before diesel begins to rise in kind with crude and heating oil futures.
  • According to eia.gov, national distillate supplies rebounded sharply in the week ended January 9, adding a robust 10.6 million barrels, now just 3.0 million barrels below the same week last year and pushing up to the midpoint of the 5-year average supply range.

Propane

  • Our regional average propane price gained 3 cents per gallon during the report week.
  • Indiana led gains adding 25 cents per gallon as Kansas firmed 19 cents.propane price chart
  • North Dakota led declines falling 17 cents per gallon, joined by Iowa and Missouri, which each softened a nickel per gallon.
  • According to EIA, national propane supplies fell 1.913 million barrels but remain 7.058 million barrels above the same week last year.
  • Winter weather will keep a seasonal floor under propane prices throughout the Midwest, and we would remind rural customers to monitor on-farm supplies closely, especially through very cold periods.

Fuel
12/28/19
1/2/19
Week-over Change
Current Week
Fuel
Farm Diesel
$2.54
$2.41
-9 cents
$2.32
Farm Diesel
LP
$1.44
$1.40
+3 cents
$1.43
LP

Our farm diesel/heating oil futures spread compares the weekly average retail farm diesel price with front-month heating oil futures as of the close on the previous Friday. A move below the "line in the sand" indicates pending upside risk. A move above our "line in the sand" indicates downside potential.

This week, our spread analysis indicates continuing near-term downside potential for retail farm diesel.


heating oil futures and farm diesel price spread chart

 

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