Weekly Fertilizer Bulletin | NCI Turns Higher

Posted on 02/06/2019 12:50 PM

 

  • Fertilizer prices were mixed but higher overall.
  • Our Nutrient Composite Index firmed 1.35 points to 611.88.

Nitrogennitrogen chart

  • Nitrogen prices were mixed but mostly higher on the week.
  • Anhydrous continued to see-saw, higher nearly $10 per short ton regionally this week.
  • Urea was only slightly higher, led by gains in South Dakota and Iowa.
  • UAN28% followed anhydrous and urea higher, but, as with urea, gains were slight. While urea and anhydrous have moved above key $600, UAN solutions are priced below that figure.
  • UAN32% bucked the trend of higher nitrogen prices, falling 66 cents. UAN32% is currently priced around $597 when considered on an indexed basis. This week's price softness, which could be interpreted as a failure to firm above an indexed value of $600, could be taken as a sign that nitrogen prices will remain tethered to that level. Strength in urea, which has set that fertilizer at an indexed value around $625 this week, would dispute the weight of resistance at 600.

Phosphatep and k chart

  • Phosphate prices were lower on the week, but only by a little.
  • DAP fell 87 cents per short ton with Nebraska leading to the downside.
  • MAP fell 8 cents by the short ton with mild gains and declines offsetting each other.
  • According to MosaicCo, wholesale phosphate prices were steady to mostly lower in the week ended February 1.
  • When considered on an indexed basis, both DAP and MAP are priced well above 600 points. Longer-term, if 600 does prove to be a tipping point, we may see phosphate prices fall. for the time being, we expect sideways price action.

Potash

  • Potash prices firmed slightly with North Dakota leading gains.
  • Wholesale potash values reported by MosaicCo were sideways at NOLA and slightly higher at Corn Belt terminals.
  • When considered on an indexed basis, potash is currently priced well below anhydrous ammonia, marking the least expensive nutrient in this week's survey.

Corn Futures

  • December 2019 corn futures closed Friday February 1 at $4.02 putting expected new-crop revenue (eNCR) at $652.21 per acre -- lower $1.73 per acre on the week.
  • With our Nutrient Composite Index (NCI) at 611.88 this week, the eNCR/NCI spread narrowed 3.08 points and now stands at -40.33.
Fertilizer
1/21/19
1/28/19
Change
Current Week
Fertilizer
Anhydrous
$594.31
$594.46
+$9.57
$604.03
Anhydrous
DAP
$527.68
$530.12
-87 cents
$529.25
DAP
MAP
$538.75
$536.28
-8 cents
$536.20
MAP
Potash
$379.96
$380.61
+43 cents
$381.04
Potash
UAN28
$278.10
$278.05
+53 cents
$278.58
UAN28
UAN32
$314.31
$312.85
-66 cents
$312.19
UAN32
Urea
$397.30
$413.09
+37 cents
$413.46
Urea
Composite
607.39
610.53
+1.35
611.88
Composite

Nutrient Composite Index chart

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