P&K Today | Potash Hints at Upside NH3 Risk

Posted on 08/30/2018 2:48 PM

 

  • DAP $65.87 above year-ago pricing -- higher $3.54/st on the week to $505.36/st.
  • MAP $62.30 above year-ago -- higher $2.34/st this week to $521.33/st.
  • Potash $20.84 above year-ago -- lower 13 cents/st this week to $353.13/st.

DAP led gains in the P&K segment this week with Kansas up $18.15 and Minnesota gaining $9.18. Eight states were unchanged and no state posted a lower price on the week.MAP price chart

MAP was higher as well led by Michigan which added $10.81 and Missouri firmed $7.05. Four states were unchanged as South Dakota fell $3.76 and Iowa dropped $1.08.

Potash was lower on the week with South Dakota off $3.13 and Iowa down $2.61.Four states were unchanged as Kansas firmed $3.91 and Missouri gained $2.77.

Wholesale phosphate prices were higher across the board at U.S. terminals, according to MosaicCo. At this week's regional average price, when considered on an indexed basis, both DAP and MAP are priced at a sharp premium to anhydrous ammonia. This has been the case for quite some time, and at the risk of repeating myself, we do not expect that to change until phosphate production fundamentals improve.

Potash is also at a stark premium relative to anhydrous ammonia. That is due more to this week's sharp decline in anhydrous prices than to strength in potash. On an indexed basis, potash holds a 6.6% premium to NH3. That may hint at anhydrous' near-term potash and nh3potential. Since potash and NH3 generally travel together, and potash has historically preferred to remain at a discount to NH3, vitamin K is telling us there is a certain amount of upside price risk baked into current NH3 prices.

That being said, potash will likely work lower into harvest, especially as corn prices slide to the downside. Phosphate will remain elevated until further notice.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended August 24, 2018.

DAP is priced at 52 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 49 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 29 1/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 8/30/2018

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.52 1/2
$0.49
$0.29 1/4
Average
Year-ago
$0.46
$0.43
$0.28
Year-ago

 


pand k indices chart

Add new comment