P&K Today | Fundamentals Conspire to Support P&K Prices

Posted on 02/23/2018 11:14 AM

 

  • DAP $24.67 above year-ago pricing -- higher $5.03/st on the week to $472.54/st.
  • MAP $53.64 above year-ago -- higher $6.86/st this week to $504.88/st.
  • Potash $17.24 above year-ago -- higher $2.90/st this week to $342.83/st.

MAP led gains in the P&K segment with Kansas up $44.17, Minnesota $16.67 higher and Nebraska gaining phosphate chart$16.27. Illinois led declines, falling $4.81 as North Dakota dropped $4.16 and Iowa fell $4.01.

DAP was higher on strength in Kansas to the tune of $19.30 as Minnesota firmed $14.43. Four states were unchanged as Michigan posted the only declines in DAP, down 70 cents per short ton.

Potash was higher as well led by South Dakota, which firmed $15.58 as Illinois gained $3.28 and Iowa added $3.02. Declines were tepid with Indiana down 91 cents and Minnesota off 47 cents.

As with nitrogen, our appetite for risk on P&K is exhausted by this week's price action. (Click here to view our advice.)A supply deficit in China is expected to continue to bolster prices for phosphate and potash. The deficit arrives in wake of urea and phosphate production slowdowns in that country as natural gas continues to be siphoned away from industry and toward home heat.

As retail phosphate and potash prices rise, we would expect U.S. production to increase, but on an indexed basis, potash is currently priced in-line with anhydrous ammonia so the upside is likely limited there until NH3 opens the door for another leg up.potash chart

Meanwhile, problems moving barges upriver carrying fertilizer will add support to spring prices as barge rates have surged this week to an 18-month high. That will add to the expense of refilling supplies at retail outlets, a situation that could remain a factor through early summer.

Given world and domestic production fundamentals, rising transport rates and the advent of early fieldwork in the far south, we believe P&K prices will continue to firm in the coming weeks. We advise growers to book remaining P&K needs for spring at current prices.

By the Pound -- The following is an updated table of P&K pricing by the pound as reported to your Inputs Monitor for the week ended February 16, 2017.

DAP is priced at 49 1/4 cents/lbP2O5; MAP at 47 1/2 cents/lbP2O5; Potash is at 28 3/4 cents/lbK2O.

P&K pricing by the pound -- 2/22/2018

DAP $P/lb

MAP $P/lb
Potash $K/lb
 
Average
$0.49 1/4
$0.47 1/2
$0.28 3/4
Average
Year-ago
$0.46 3/4
$0.42
$0.27 1/2
Year-ago

pandk indices


 

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