Wet and Warm Midwest Forecast

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

Midwest Planting Advancing on Favorable Weather, Wet Forecast Ahead

A glowing report on U.S. crops was released by USDA yesterday revealing good progress in Midwest corn and soybean planting condition, also favorable prospects for wheat.

Drier field conditions boosted the planting pace for Midwest crops with abundant sunshine and little rain. The USDA reported that 86% of corn was planted and 60% emerged, right on target with the five-year average. Soybean seeding moved ahead to 56% planted and 22% emerged, a close match with the mean planting dates.

Spring wheat producers have sown 95% of intended wheat. Some 78% of wheat has already sprouted and emerged, well ahead of the 51% average. Unusually warm spring weather was responsible for rapid planting and early growth.

Winter wheat prospects continue promising for a favorable harvest much improved from last season. Conditions were 62% good-excellent, 30% fair and 8% poor-very poor May 22nd. Prospects are much better than last season, due to plentiful spring rains.

Kansas wheat production has been pegged at 382 million bu. up 19% from last year, the largest wheat state in the country. Not since 2012 has Kansas wheat been this abundant. The combined wheat from Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado and Nebraska - the five leading bread wheat states - totaled 748 million bu., 30% above the average of the three prior years.

Wet and Warm Midwest Forecast

Showers and thunderstorms developed yesterday in North Dakota and South Dakota, the beginning of a stormy, wet period in the Midwest.


Nebraska and western Iowa are targeted for strong showers today that spread into eastern Iowa, southeast Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan on Wednesday. Recurring showers and thunderstorms would continue Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Recurring strong showers would spin out of a trough in the jet stream over the southwest U.S. States, promoting instability and heavy rainfall on Midwest farms.


The seven-day forecast is very wet calling for at least 1.5 inches of rainfall in Midwest corn and soybeans, but up to 5 inches locally in recurring thunderstorms. Western Iowa and southern Wisconsin are expecting 3-5 inches of rain, the equivalent to a full month's worth of rain in a single week. Gully-washer rains may causing localized flooding, washing out freshly planted seeds necessitating replanting. Summer-like temperatures are predicted in the upcoming week that would encourage continued strong growth in corn and soybeans.


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