USDA Raises 2016 All Wheat Production Estimate

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:20 AM

 

All wheat production totaled 2.31 billion bushels in 2016, up 12 percent from the revised 2015 total of 2.06 billion bushels. Area harvested for grain totaled 43.9 million acres, down 7 percent from the previous year. The United States yield is estimated at 52.6 bushels per acre, up 9 bushels from the previous year and represents a new record high. The levels of production and changes from 2015 by type are winter wheat, 1.67 billion bushels, up 22 percent; other spring wheat, 534 million bushels, down 11 percent; and Durum wheat, 104 million bushels, up 24 percent.

Winter wheat: Winter wheat production for 2016 totaled 1.67 billion bushels, up 22 percent from the revised 2015 total of 1.37 billion bushels. The United States yield, at 55.3 bushels per acre, is up 12.8 bushels from 2015 and represents a new record high. Area harvested for grain is estimated at 30.2 million acres, down 7 percent from the previous year. Record high yields are estimated in Colorado, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, Washington, and Wisconsin for 2016.

Harvested acreage was down from 2015 in most of the major Hard Red Winter (HRW) growing States, the primary wheat producing area. However, HRW production totaled 1.08 billion bushels, up 30 percent from 2015 due to the higher yields in 2016 compared with 2015.

In the Soft Red Winter (SRW) growing area, planted and harvested acreage decreases from 2015 were experienced throughout most of the region. SRW production totaled 345 million bushels, down 4 percent from 2015.

White winter production totaled 245 million bushels, up 32 from the previous year. Harvested acreage in the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, and Washington) was up 2 percent from 2015. Yields were up from last year in Idaho and Washington.

Other spring wheat: Production for 2016 is estimated at 534 million bushels, down 11 percent from the revised 2015 total of 603 million bushels. Harvested area totaled 11.3 million acres, down 13 percent from 2015. The United States yield is estimated at 47.2 bushels per acre, 1 bushel higher than the 2015 average yield and represents a new record high. Of the total production, 493 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 13 percent from 2015. A record high yield is estimated in Idaho for 2016.

By May 8, producers had sown 77 percent of the spring wheat crop, 7 percentage points behind the previous year but 26 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Favorable field conditions aided planting progress which remained ahead of the 5-year average pace throughout the spring. Nationally, producers had sown 95 percent of the spring wheat crop by May 22, equal to the previous year but 18 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Seventy-four percent of the spring wheat was at or beyond the heading stage by July 3, six percentage points ahead of the previous year and 29 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average. Spring wheat development ran well ahead of normal in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Plains in 2016. Nationally, 91 percent of the spring wheat crop was harvested by September 4, one percentage point behind the previous year but 16 percentage points ahead of the 5-year average.

Durum wheat: Production for 2016 is estimated at 104 million bushels, up 24 percent from the revised 2015 total of 84.0 million bushels. Grain area harvested totaled 2.37 million acres, up 24 percent from the previous year. The United States yield is estimated at a record high of 44.0 bushels per acre, equal to the 2015 average yield. Production in North Dakota, the largest Durum - producing State, is up 37 percent from 2015. Durum wheat production in Montana for 2016 represents a record high for the State. Record high yields are estimated in both Montana and North Dakota for 2016. Favorable conditions throughout the growing season advanced crop development ahead of normal in Montana and North Dakota, the two largest Durum-producing States. As a result, harvest progress in these two States as of September 4, was well ahead of the 5-year average pace.

Oat production is estimated at 64.8 million bushels, down 28 percent from 2015. Yield is estimated at 66.0 bushels per acre, down 4.2 bushels from the previous year. Harvested area, at 981,000 acres, is 23 percent below last year.

Barley production is estimated at 199 million bushels, down 9 percent from the revised 2015 total of 218 million bushels. Average yield per acre, at 77.9 bushels, is up 8.8 bushels from the previous year and is the highest yield on record since estimates began in 1866. Producers seeded 3.05 million acres in 2016, down 16 percent from last year. Harvested area, at 2.56 million acres, is down 19 percent from 2015.


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