USDA Leaves Corn, Soybean and Wheat Carryover Unchanged

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

Market reaction

Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans were mostly 6 to 7 cents higher, winter wheat contracts were mixed with a downside bias, spring wheat futures were fractionally to a penny higher and cotton futures were holding near unchanged.

Following today's uneventful S&D update, prices have softened. Corn is now 1/2 to 1 1/2 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat is mixed with a downside bias, spring wheat is 1 to 2 cents higher and cotton is 40 to 60 points lower.

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete reacts to the report:

Crop production

Cotton: 16.524 million bales; trade expected 16.28 million bales
-- compares to 16.16 million bales in November; 12.89 million bales in 2015


USDA made no change on harvested cotton acres from the November update, but added 18 lbs. to the national average cotton yield, pushing it to 821 lbs. per acre. The result was a 362,000-bale increase to the 2016 cotton crop estimate.

 

U.S. carryover

Corn: 2.403 billion bu. for 2016-17; unchanged from 2.403 billion bu. in November
Beans: 480 million bu. for 2016-17; unchanged from 480 million bu. in November
Wheat: 1.143 billion bu. for 2016-17; unchanged from 1.143
billion bu. in November
Cotton: 4.8 million bales for 2016-17; up from 4.5 million bales in November

USDA made no change to the supply or demand side of the balance sheet for corn. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $3.05 to $3.65, up a nickel on both ends of the range from last month.

USDA made no change to the supply or demand side of the balance sheet for soybeans. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $8.70 to $10.20, up a quarter on both ends of the range from last month.

After EPA announced an increase in biodiesel use mandates at the end of November, USDA did make some changes on the soybean oil balance sheet. Beginning stocks were dropped 31 million lbs, but imports increased 25 million lbs. for a 6-million-lb. drop in total soybean oil supplies. On the demand side, it increased bean oil for biodiesel production 250 million lbs., but it cut bean oil use for food, feed & other industrial use 150 million pounds. Exports were unchanged, resulting in a 106-million-lb. drop in estimated soybean oil ending stocks.

USDA made no change to the supply or demand side of the balance sheet for wheat. It now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $3.60 to $3.80, up a dime on the bottom of the range and down a dime on the top end of the range from last month.

Total cotton supplies are up 360,000 bales, reflecting the bigger crop estimate. On the demand side, USDA cut domestic use by 200,000 bales, increased estimated exports 200,000 and increased unaccounted use by 60,000 bales to generate a 300,000-bale jump in ending stocks. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 64 cents to 70 cents, up a penny on the bottom end of the range and down a penny on the top end of the range from last month.


Global carryover

Corn: 222.25 for 2016-17; up from 218.19 MMT in November
-- compares to 208.95 MMT in 2015-16

Beans: 82.85 MMT for 2016-17; up from 81.53 MMT in November
-- compares to 77.22 MMT in 2015-16
Wheat: 252.14 MMT for 2016-17; up from 249.23 MMT in November
-- compares to 240.65 MMT in 2015-16
Cotton: 89.15 million bales for 2016-17; up from 88.31 million bales in November

-- compares to 96.8 million bales in 2015-16

 

Global production highlights

Argentina beans: 57.0 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 57.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 56.8 MMT in 2015-16
Brazil beans: 102.0 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 102.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 96.5 MMMT in 2015-16

Argentina wheat: 14.4 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 14.4 MMT in November
-- compares to 11.3 MMT in 2015-16
Australia wheat: 33.0 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 28.3 MMT in November
-- compares to 24.5 MMT in 2015-16
China wheat: 128.85 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 128.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 130.19 MMT in 2015-16
Canada wheat: 31.7 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 31.5 MMT in November
-- compares to 27.59 MMT in 2015-16
EU wheat: 143.97 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 143.57 MMT in November
-- compares to 160.01 MMT in 2015-16
Russia wheat: 72.0 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 72.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 61.04 MMT in 2015-16
FSU-12 wheat: 131.43 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 131.43 MMT in November
-- compares to 118.24 MMT in 2015-16
China corn: 219.55 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 216.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 224.63 MMT in 2015-16
Argentina corn: 36.5 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 36.5 MMT in November
-- compares to 29.0 MMT in 2015-16
South Africa corn: 13.0 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 13.0 MMT in November
-- compares to 7.9 MMT in 2015-16
Brazil corn: 86.5 MMT for 2016-17; compares to 83.5 MMT in November
-- compares to 67.0 MMT in 2015-16
China cotton: 21.0 mil. bales for 2016-17; compares to 21.0 mil. bales in November
-- compares to 22.0 mil. bales in 2015-16

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