USDA Agricultural Baseline to 2026: Acreage Projections

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

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US corn planted acres are projected to fall to 90 million acres in 2017 and range from 86 million to 89.5 million through 2026 while wheat area is projected to dip to 48.5 million in 2017 and not move above 49.5 million through 2026 with soybean acres rising to 84.6 million in 2017 but then fall between 83.6 million to 84.1 million through 2026,  according to early release tables from the USDA Agricultural Projections to 2026 report which will be released in full in February 2017. (Link to access tables.)

What the full report will include: The complete report will include not only the tables released today (November 29), but also a full discussion of the commodity supply and use projections, as well as projections for global commodity trade. The Agricultural Act of 2014 is assumed to be extended and remain in effect through the projection period. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared during October through November 2016. The projections use as a starting point the short-term projections from the November 9, 2016 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

Comments: The long-term projections from USDA indicate that Soybean acres are forecast to "top out" in 2017 while the 2016 acreage mark for corn at 94.5 million is the peak with area eroding to 86 million by the end of the forecast period. And with wheat, the projections indicate the coming crop season is likely to be the low-water mark but no major shifts are ahead for US wheat area under the scenario laid out by USDA. Total crop area for the major crops declines less than 5 million acres over the projections, with most of the reduction coming in corn. 

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