Soybean Export Sales Fall Short of Lofty Expectations

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report
Week Ended Dec. 22, 2016

Corn
Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 1,004,800
2016-17: 958,600
2017-18: 46,200

Trade Expectations (MT) 800,000-1,200,000
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 958,600 MT for 2016-17 were down 23% from the previous week and 24% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were for Mexico (480,900 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 8,800 MT), Japan (181,500 MT, including 88,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,300 MT), Peru (129,600 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 14,900 MT), Malaysia (66,300 MT), and South Korea (56,500 MT, switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,500 MT). Reductions were for unknown destinations (70,200 MT), Guatemala (6,400 MT), Colombia (5,700 MT), and Panama (1,500 MT). For 2017-18, net sales of 46,200 MT were reported for Mexico (32,000 MT), Peru (13,000 MT), and Honduras (1,200 MT).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 992,000 MT were up 27% from the previous week and 5% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (286,800 MT), South Korea (187,800 MT), Japan (179,800 MT), Peru (142,500 MT), and Colombia (42,000 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were within expectations. Export commitments for 2016-17 are running 75% ahead of of year-ago, compared to 76% ahead the previous week. USDA projects exports in 2016-17 at 2.225 billion bu., up 17.2% from the previous marketing year.
Wheat
Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 582,500
2016-17: 568,100
2017-18: 14,400

Trade Expectations (MT) 200,000-550,000
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 568,100 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2016-17 were up 91% from the previous week and 25% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (170,300 MT, including 60,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), Mexico (118,300 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT), South Korea (82,500 MT), Japan (57,000 MT, including 45,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Peru (48,000 MT). Reductions were reported for Algeria (20,000 MT), French West Indies (9,000 MT), Nigeria (2,100 MT), and unknown destinations (1,100 MT). For 2017-18, net sales of 14,400 MT were reported for Mexico.
Weekly Export Details Exports of 481,900 MT were up 17% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (86,100 MT), Thailand (66,000 MT), China (63,000 MT), Taiwan (52,300 MT), and Egypt (49,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were a bit stronger than expected. Export commitments for 2016-17 are running 33% ahead of year-ago versus 32% ahead the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2016-17 at 975 million bu., up 25.8% from the previous marketing year.
Soybeans
Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 979,200
2016-17: 974,100
2017-18: 5,100

Trade Expectations (MT) 1,000,000-1,500,000
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 974,100 MT for 2016-17 were down 46% from the previous week and 40% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (1,047,600 MT, including 507,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 7,400 MT), Spain (100,300 MT, including 40,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (84,400 MT, including 74,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT), Japan (81,000 MT, including 8,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), and South Korea (78,000 MT, including 48,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Reductions were for unknown destinations (632,200 MT). For 2017-18, net sales of 5,100 MT were reported for Japan.
Weekly Export Details Exports of 1,891,600 MT were up 5% from the previous week, but down 3% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,364,000 MT), Indonesia (94,100 MT), the Netherlands (84,400 MT), Mexico (79,600 MT), and Japan (59,300 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales fell short expectations. Export commitments for 2016-17 are running 28% ahead of year-ago, compared to 27% ahead the previous week. USDA projects exports in 2016-17 at 2.050 billion bu., up 5.9% from year-ago.
Soymeal
Actual Sales (in MT) Combined: 296,400
2016-17: 251,900
2017-18: 44,500
Trade Expectations (MT)

40,000-200,000

Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 251,900 MT for 2016-17 were up 81% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (145,100 MT), Vietnam (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (22,200 MT), Colombia (16,100 MT, including decreases of 3,700 MT), and Honduras (15,800 MT, including 8,700 MT switched from unknown destinations). Reductions were for unknown destinations (50,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (2,200 MT), Guatemala (2,100 MT), and Japan (1,400 MT). For 2017-18, net sales of 44,500 MT were reported for Mexico (42,800 MT) and Nicaragua (1,600 MT).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 199,300 MT were down 29% from the previous week and 3% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (53,700 MT), Saudi Arabia (29,000 MT), Colombia (22,400 MT), Canada (16,700 MT), and the Dominican Republic (16,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales topped expectations. Export commitments for 2016-17 are running 8% behind year-ago compared with 11% behind the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2016-17 to be up 0.3% from the previous marketing year.
Soyoil
Actual Sales (in MT)

2016-17: 18,900

Trade Expectations (MT) 5,000-20,000
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 18,900 MT for 2016-17 were up 26% from the previous week, but down 39% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (27,000 MT, including 17,000 MT switched from China), Mexico (4,000 MT), Costa Rica (2,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,000 MT, including decreases of 10,000 MT), and Panama (500 MT). Reductions were reported for China (17,000 MT).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 56,200 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (23,000 MT), South Korea (17,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,800 MT), and Mexico (6,100 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Sales were near the upper end of expectations. Export commitments for the 2016-17 marketing year are running 5% behind year-ago, compared to 9% behind last week. USDA projects exports in 2016-17 to be down 4.0% from the previous year.
Cotton
Actual Sales (in RB) Combined: 347,200
2016-17: 343,200
2017-18: 4,200
Weekly Sales Details Net upland sales of 343,200 RB for 2016-17 were up 24% from the previous week and 15% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (98,800 RB, including decreases of 400 RB), Vietnam (80,700 RB, including 1,000 RB switched from South Korea, 100 RB switched from Japan and decreases of 1,100 RB), Turkey (49,500 RB, including decreases of 600 RB), Pakistan (24,700 RB), and Japan (16,800 RB). Reductions were reported for El Salvador (1,900 RB). For 2017-18, net sales of 4,200 RB were reported for Japan (2,300 RB) and El Salvador (1,900 RB).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 267,900 RB--a marketing-year high--were up 28% from the previous week and 36% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (61,600 RB), Vietnam (51,100 RB), Turkey (27,700 RB), Indonesia (24,900 RB), and Thailand (18,200 RB).
Comments and Performance Indicators Export commitments for 2016-17 are 65% ahead of year-ago, compared to 61% ahead the previous week. USDA projects exports to be up 31.1% from the previous year at 12 million bales.
Beef
Actual Sales (in MT)

Combined: 21,000
2016: 10,000
2017: 11,000

Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 10,000 MT for 2016 were up 18% from the previous week and 52% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Hong Kong (1,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Japan (1,500 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Canada (1,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Mexico (1,000 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). For 2017, net sales of 11,000 MT were primary for Japan (5,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), South Korea (1,600 MT), and Taiwan (900 MT).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 18,700 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 14% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (4,100 MT), South Korea (3,900 MT), Hong Kong (3,300 MT), Canada (2,000 MT), and Mexico (1,900 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators Weekly export sales compare to 9,300 MT the week prior. USDA projects exports in 2016 to be up 8.6% from last year's total.
Pork
Actual Sales (in MT) Combined: 39,500
2016: 3,900
2017: 35,600
Weekly Sales Details Net sales of 3,900 MT for 2016--a marketing-year low--were down 33% from the previous week and 51% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan 3,500 MT), Mexico (1,200 MT), Canada (200 MT), and China (200 MT). Reductions were reported for South Korea (400 MT), Chile (300 MT), Colombia (200 MT), and Taiwan (100 MT). For 2017, net sales of 35,600 MT were primarily for Mexico (28,300 MT), South Korea (1,800 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), and Colombia (1,400 MT).
Weekly Export Details Exports of 24,800 MT--a marketing-year high--were up 1% from the previous week and 4% from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (11,400 MT), Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (3,100 MT), Canada (1,500 MT), and Hong Kong (1,200 MT).
Comments and Performance Indicators

Export sales compare to 31,500 MT the prior week. USDA projects exports in 2016 to be 3.4% above last year's total.

 

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