PF Special Reaction: Few Changes in March WASDE Report

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

Market reaction

Ahead of the reports, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 1 to 3 cents higher, wheat was 2 to 5 cents lower and cotton was 40 to 50 points lower.

In post-report trade, corn is mostly a penny lower, soybeans slightly extended losses and are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower, wheat trimmed losses and is 1 to 2 cents lower and cotton prices haven't budged from pre-report levels.

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete reacts to USDA data:

 

2015-16 U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.837 billion bu.; unch. from February projection of 1.837 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.731 billion bu. in 2014-15
Beans: 460 million bu.; up from February projection of 450 million bu.
-- compares to 191 million bu. in 2014-15
Wheat: 966 million bu.; unch. from February projection of 966 million bu.
-- compares to 753 million bu. in 2014-15
Cotton: 3.6 million bales; unch. from February projection of 3.6 million bales
-- compares to 3.7 million bales in 2014-15

Estimated corn carryover is unchanged from February, but is 17 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the supply or demand side of the balance sheet, but it did narrow the national on-farm cash corn price projection by a nickel on both ends of the range to $3.40 to $3.80.

Estimated soybean carryover is up 10 million bu. from February and is 8 million bu. above the average pre-report trade expectation. USDA cut 10 million bu. from expected 2015-16 crush (to 1.870 billion bu.), cut 5 million bu. from estimated residual "use" (to 34 million bu.) and added 4 million bu. to expected seed use (to 96 million bu., which makes it steady with last year's estimated seed use). The national average on-farm cash soybean price is now estimated at $8.25 (up 20 cents from last month) to $9.25 (down 30 cents from February).

Estimated wheat carryover is steady with last month, but is 9 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the supply or demand side of the balance sheet and left the national average on-farm cash wheat price projection at $4.90 to $5.10.

USDA made no change to estimated cotton carryover from last month, which lines-up with pre-report trade expectations. USDA made no change to the total supply of cotton, but it did cut 20,000 acres from estimated harvested acres and offset that with a 2-lb. increase to the national average cotton yield (which now stands at 771 lbs. per acre). No changes were made on the demand-side of the balance sheet. USDA narrowed the national average on-farm cash cotton price projection range from last month; it now stands at 58 cents (unchanged) to 60 cents (down a penny from February).
 

 

2015-16 global carryover

Corn: 206.97 MMT; down from February proj. of 208.81 MMT
-- compares to 205.11 MMT in 2014-15
Beans: 78.87 MMT; down from February proj. of 80.42 MMT
-- compares to 77.14 MMT in 2014-15
Wheat: 237.59 MMT; down from February proj. of 238.87 MMT
-- compares to 214.65 MMT in 2014-15
Cotton: 103.34 mil. bales; down from February proj. of 104.08 mil. bales
-- compares to 112.17 million bales in 2014-15

 

 

2015-16 global production highlights

Argentina beans: 58.5 MMT; compares to 58.5 MMT in February
-- compares to 61.4 MMT in 2014-15
Brazil beans: 100.0 MMT; compares to 100.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 96.2 MMT in 2014-15
Argentina wheat: 11.0 MMT; compares to 11.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 12.5 MMT in 2014-15
Australia wheat: 24.5 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 23.08 MMT in 2014-15
China wheat: 130.19 MMT; compares to 130.19 MMT in February
-- compares to 126.21 MMT in 2014-15
Canada wheat: 27.6 MMT; compares to 27.6 MMT in February
-- compares to 29.42 MMT in 2014-15
EU wheat: 158.46 MMT; compares to 157.98 MMT in February
-- compares to 156.66 MMT in 2014-15
Russia wheat: 61.0 MMT; compares to 61.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 59.08 MMT in 2014-15
FSU-12 wheat: 117.53 MMT; compares to 117.53 MMT in February
-- compares to 112.75 MMT in 2014-15
China corn: 224.58 MMT; compares to 224.58 MMT in February
-- compares to 215.65 MMT in 2014-15
Argentina corn: 27.0 MMT; compares to 27.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 27.0 MMT in 2014-15
South Africa corn: 6.5 MMT; compares to 7.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 10.8 MMT in 2014-15
Brazil corn: 84.0 MMT; compares to 84.0 MMT in February
-- compares to 85.0 MMT in 2014-15
China cotton: 23.8 mil. bales; compares to 23.8 mil. bales in February
-- compares to 30.0 million bales in 2014-15

"

Add new comment