PF Special Reaction: Corn Acres Rise, Surprising Market

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

Market reaction

Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents lower, beans were 9 to 15 cents lower, wheat was mixed, with SRW lower and HRW and spring wheat slightly higher, and cotton was 15 to 45 points higher.

In post-report trade, corn is trading 8 to 10 cents lower, soybeans are 28 to 35 cents higher, all wheat flavors are mostly 2 to 4 cents higher and cotton is 125 to 140 points lower.

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete provides highlights:

Acreage Report

Corn: 94.148 mil. acres; trade expected 92.896 mil. acres
-- compares to 93.601 mil. acres in March; 87.999 mil. acres in 2015
Soybeans: 83.688 mil. acres; traders expected 83.834 mil. acres
-- compares to 82.236 mil. acres in March; 82.650 mil. acres in 2015
All wheat: 50.816 mil. acres; traders expected 49.869 mil. acres
-- compares to 49.599 mil. acres in March; 54.644 mil. acres in 2015
Spring wheat: 12.133 mil. acres; traders expected 11.714 mil. acres
-- compares to 11.348 mil. acres in March; 13.247 mil. acres in 2015
Durum wheat: 2.145 mil. acres; traders expected 1.975 mil. acres
-- compares to 1.995 mil. acres in March; 1.936 mil. acres in 2015
Cotton: 10.023 mil. acres; traders expected 9.541 mil. acres
-- compares to 9.562 mil. acres in March; 8.581 mil. acres in 2015

Corn plantings are up 547,000 acres from March intentions and are 1.252 million acres above the average pre-report trade estimate. This year's plantings are also 6.149 million acres above year-ago. This projects to harvested corn acres of 86.55 million -- 91.9% of planted acres.

Looking at the state-by-state acreage estimates compared to March intentions, corn acres are down in Illinois (400,000). June 1 planted acres matched March intentions in Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Texas. Acreage increases from March were noted in Iowa (100,000), Michigan (50,000), Minnesota (300,000), Missouri (100,000), North Dakota (100,000) and Wisconsin (up 200,000).

Soybean plantings are up 1.452 million from March intentions, but 146,000 below the average pre-report trade estimate. This year's bean plantings are also 1.038 million acres above last year. Harvested soybean acres are projected at 83.037 million, or 99.2% of planted acres.

Compared to the March Prospective Plantings Report, soybean plantings are up in Arkansas (100,000), Indiana (150,000), Kansas (300,000), Michigan (50,000), Minnesota (up 400,000), Missouri (50,000) and Ohio (150,000). June 1 bean acres matched up with March intentions in Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota and Wisconsin. Bean acres are down from March intentions in Illinois (100,000) and South Dakota (100,000).

All wheat seedings are up 1.257 million from March intentions and are 947,000 acres above the average pre-report trade estimate. All wheat seedings are still down 2.923 million from year-ago.

Spring wheat seedings are up 785,000 acres from March intentions and are 419,000 acres above the average pre-report trade estimate. Spring wheat acres, however, are still down 1.114 million acres from last year.

Durum wheat seedings are up 150,000 acres from March intentions and are 170,000 above the average pre-report trade estimate. Durum acres are up 209,000 acres from year-ago.

Cotton plantings are up 461,000 acres from March intentions and are 482,000 acres above the average pre-report trade estimate. This year's plantings are also up 1.442 million from year-ago. Cotton plantings in Georgia are up 150,000 acres from March intentions, and Texas cotton producers seeded 200,000 more acres than intended in March.

USDA now puts principal crop acres in the U.S. at 323.4 million, up 6.1 million acres from March intentions.

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks Report

Corn: 4.722 billion bu.; traders expected 4.528 billion bu.
-- compares to 7.808 bil. bu. March 1 and 4.453 bil. bu. June 1, 2015
Soybeans: 870 million bu.; traders expected 829 million bu.
-- compares to 1.531 bil. bu. March 1 and 627 mil. bu. June 1, 2015
Wheat: 981 million bu.; traders expected 982 million bu.
-- compares to 1.372 bil. bu. March 1 and 752 mil. bu. June 1, 2015

Corn stocks in all positions on June 1 are 194 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and are up 6% from June 1, 2015. On-farm stocks are up 9% from year-ago at 2.47 billion bu. and off-farm stocks of 2.25 billion bushels are up 3% from last year. Implied use in the third quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is 3.1 billion bu. compared to 3.3 billion bu. in the same quarter last year.

Soybean stocks in all positions on June 1 are 41 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and are up 39% from year-ago. On-farm soybean stocks of 281 million bu. are up 14% from last year and off-farm stocks of 589 million bu. are up 55% from year-ago. Implied use in the third quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is 661 million bushels, down 5% from the same period last year.

Wheat stocks on June 1 line up with pre-report trade expectations. On-farm stocks of 197 million bu. are up 27% from year-ago and off-farm stocks of 784 million bu. are up 31% from last year. Implied disappearance of wheat in the fourth quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is 391 million bu., up 1% from the same period last year.

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