Midweek Marketing Game Plan Update

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:18 AM

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete provides highlights:

Corn: Hedgers and cash-only marketers have 50% of 2016-crop production sold in the cash market. Hedgers and cash-only marketers also have 10% of expected 2017-crop sold for harvest delivery via hedge-to-arrive contracts. Use periods of price strength to get current with advised old- and new-crop sales. We are targeting the $3.90 to $4.00 area in May corn futures and $4.00 to $4.10 in December futures to increase old- and new-crop sales.

Soybeans: Hedgers have 75% of 2016-crop production sold in the cash market, while cash-only marketers are 65% priced. Hedgers and cash-only marketers also have 20% of expected 2017-crop sold for harvest delivery via hedge-to-arrive contracts. Use periods of price strength to get current with recommended sales. We are targeting $11.00 or higher in May futures and $10.50 or higher in November futures for additional sales. If May futures drop below key support in the $10.20 area, we may advise protective hedges for hedgers.

Wheat: Hedgers and cash-only marketers have 70% of 2016-crop sold in the cash market. Hedgers and cash-only marketers also have 20% of expected 2017-crop sold for harvest delivery via hedge-to-arrive contracts. We are targeting the $4.75 to $5.00 range in May SRW futures and $4.85 to $5.10 in July SRW futures to make additional sales.

Cotton: Hedgers and cash-only marketers have 80% of 2016-crop sold in the cash market. Hedgers and cash-only marketers now have 25% of expected 2017-crop sold for harvest delivery. We are targeting 80.00 cents in May futures and 78.00 cents or higher in December futures for making additional old- and new-crop sales.

Cattle: Fed cattle producers have 25% of first-quarter production hedged in April live cattle futures at $119.15. Stick with the April hedges for now. We may extend coverage into the second quarter if June futures challenge the January highs and stall.

Hogs: We advised exiting the first-quarter hedges in April lean hog futures out of concern the $7.50-plus discount the contract holds to the cash index will result in a futures rally. We netted modest profits of $1 from the hedge. We are not interested in second-quarter hedges since June lean hog futures are trading just slighlty above the cash index, whereas the cash market typically rallies into mid-summer as supplies tighten.

Feed: All soybean meal needs are covered in the cash market through the end of March. A drop into the $330.00 range in May futures would be a value buy if basis remains soft. We are hand-to-mouth on corn-for-feed needs for now. We are targeting a pullback to the low-$3.60 range in May corn futures to extend coverage.

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