La Nina Chances Increase Late-Summer to Early Fall

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives 45% odds of La Nina developing during the June through August period, with those chances increasing to 58% for July through September. NOAA says sea surface temperatures reflect a weakening El Nino, with nearly all models predicting a transition to ENSO-neutral by late spring or early summer.


The chance of La Nina increases during late summer or early fall, says NOAA. "The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events," it states.



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