La Nina Chances Increase Late-Summer to Early Fall

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives 45% odds of La Nina developing during the June through August period, with those chances increasing to 58% for July through September. NOAA says sea surface temperatures reflect a weakening El Nino, with nearly all models predicting a transition to ENSO-neutral by late spring or early summer.

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The chance of La Nina increases during late summer or early fall, says NOAA. "The official forecast is consistent with the model forecasts, also supported by a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events," it states.

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