The International Grain Council (IGC) has raised its global 2016-17 corn production forecast by 8 MMT from last month to result in a like-sized increase in global total grain production to 2.077 billion metric tons (BMT). The group now sees global corn production up 64 MMT from last season and total grains production up 74 MMT from year-ago. This month's upward adjustments for corn came from the U.S., Argentina and India. The group raised its global wheat production peg by 1 MMT to 748 MMT, up 11 MMT from the previous season due to an increase "mostly in the Black Sea region."
IGC says the rise in feed demand accounts for about half of the projected 72-MMT gain in grains consumption to 2.054 BMT. "Feeding of maize (corn) is seeing climbing by 32 MMT to the highest ever, while a 5 MMT increase is projected for wheat," it states. "Grains inventories in the major exporters are projected to grow to a seven-year high, while those in China could reach 200 MMT for the first time in 17 years."
"World trade is expected to stay at a high level in 2016-17, but at 337 MMT is placed modestly below the previous year’s record," IGC adds. "This is mainly linked to measures in China to encourage the use of local alternatives in place of imported feed grains, including barley and sorghum. Higher-than-normal purchases by India could help to boost wheat trade to a new high."
Meanwhile, the agency raised its 2016-17 global soybean production peg by 3 MMT from last month to 332 MMT, raised its trade and consumption projections by 1 MMT each, but also raised carryin stocks to result in a 4 MMT increase in carryover to 33 MMT, equal to the previous season.