The International Grain Council (IGC) raised its global 2016-17 wheat crop peg by 6 MMT from last month to 735 MMT, but also boosted consumption by 7 MMT. In the end, it projects carryover at a robust 228 MMT, up 2 MMT from last month and 9 MMT higher than year-ago. IGC raised its global 2016-17 corn production peg by 14 MMT to 1,017 MMT, but also raised consumption by 8 MMT to 1,010 MMT (968 MMT in 2015-16) for a carryover peg by 213 MMT, up from 205 MMT last month and 207 MMT in 2015-16.
Regarding global production, IGC says much of the upward revision for wheat production is for the CIS and U.S., offset slightly by a reduction in the EU due to "increasing evidence of yield and quality damage following untimely rains." It also says much of the increase in the global corn estimate came from an increase in U.S. crop prospects.
The IGC is also more optimistic about global feed demand. "Much of the month-over-month rise in grains supply is absorbed by increased feed use, lifting projected total consumption to a new peak of 2,029 MMT," it states. "Nevertheless, the forecast for stocks is 6 MMT higher than last time, at 488 MMT. Bigger numbers for wheat and maize (corn) boost the world trade forecast by 5 MMT, but neither grain is seen matching the all-time highs of the year before."
The IGC raised its 2016-17 global soybean production peg by 1 MMT from last month to 321 MMT. It also raised consumption by 3 MMT to 327 MMT, up from 318 MMT in 2015-16. The IGC raised global carryover by 2 MMT from last month to 30 MMT, down from 35 MMT in 2015-16."