Grain Stocks Report Void of Any Big Surpises

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:20 AM

Market reaction

Ahead of USDA's reports, corn futures were trading 3 to 4 cents lower, soybeans were 1 to 3 cents higher, winter wheat futures were 3 to 6 cents lower with spring wheat futures 1 to 4 cents higher.

Following the reports, corn futures are mostly 4 to 5 cents higher, soybean futures are steady to a penny lower, winter wheat futures are 2 to 7 cents lower and spring wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents higher.



Sept. 1 Grain Stocks

Corn: 1.738 billion bu.; trade expected 1.754 billion bu.
-- compares to 4.722 billion bu. on June 1; 1.731 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2015
Beans: 197 million bu., trade expected 201 million bu.
-- compares to 870 million bu. on June 1; 191 million bu. on Sept. 1, 2015
Wheat: 2.527 billion bu.; trade expected 2.402 billion bu.
-- compares to 981 million bu. on June 1; 2.097 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2015

September 1 corn stocks came in 16 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and up just 7 million bu. from Sept. 1, 2015. This estimate is also 22 million bu. above USDA's September carryover estimate. Of the total stocks, 627 million bu. are stored on farms, up 6% from year-ago and off-farm stocks totaled 1.11 billion bu., down 2% from last year. Implied use in the fourth quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year was 2.97 billion bu., up from 2.72 billion bu. in the same quarter of the previous marketing year.

Sept. 1 bean stocks came in just 4 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate and are just 2 million bu. above USDA's Sept. carryover estimate. On-farm stocked totaled just 41.6 million bu., down 16% from year-ago and off-farm stocks at 155 million bu. were up 10% from last year. Indicated disappearance for the fourth-quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year was a record 675 million bu. and was up 55% from the same period last year.

USDA also trimmed 2.82 million bu. from the 2015 bean crop, the result of an 82,000-acre cut to estimated harvested acres. The 2015 bean yield was unchanged from the January Annual Production Summary at 48 bu. per acre. That puts the 2015 bean crop at 3.926 billion bushels.

Wheat stocks on Sept. 1 were 125 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate and were up 430 million bu. from Sept. 1, 2015. On-farm stocks are estimated at 726 million bu., up 12% from last year and off-farm stocks are put at 1.8 billion bu., up 24% from year-ago. Implied use in the first quarter of the 2016-17 marketing year was 758 million bu., up 6% from the same period last year. Durum stocks are up 24% from year-ago with on-farm stocks up 46% and off-farm stocks down 9% from year-ago. Durum use in the first quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year totaled 40 million bu., up 12% from the same period last year.


Annual Small Grains Summary

All wheat: 2.310 billion bu.; trade expected 2.323 billion bu.
-- compares to 2.321 billion bu. in August; 2.052 billion bu. in 2015
All winter wheat: 1.672 billion bu.; trade expected 1.660 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.657 billion bu. in August; 1.370 billion bu. in 2015
HRW: 1.082 billion bu.; trade expected 1.049 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.048 billion bu. in August; 827 million bu. in 2015
SRW: 345.2 million bu.; trade expected 370 million bu.
-- compares to 372 million bu. in August; 357 million bu. in 2015
White winter: 244.6 million bu.; trade expected 239 million bu.
-- compares to 237 million bu. in August; 184 million bu. in 2015
Other spring: 534.0 million bu.; trade expected 570 million bu.
-- compares to 571 million bu. in August; 599 million bu. in 2015
Durum: 104.1 million bu.; trade expected 93 million bu.
-- compares to 92 million bu. in August; 82 million bu. in 2015

The all-wheat crop estimate is down 13 million bu. from the August Crop Production Report. Winter wheat production is estimated 15 million bu. bigger than in August with the HRW crop up 34 million bu. and the white winter wheat crop up 7.6 million bu., but the SRW crop estimate is down 26.8 million bu. from August.

The spring wheat crop also fell short of the August estimate. The spring crop fell 37 million bu. from the August estimate. That was partially offset by a 12.1-million-bu. increase in the durum crop estimate.

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