Friendly Production, Grain Stocks Data for Corn and Soybeans

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:25 AM

Market reaction

Ahead of the reports, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 3 cents lower, wheat was 1 to 5 cents lower and cotton was 50 to 60 points higher.

In post-report trade, corn is 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans are 15 to 18 cents higher, wheat is 13 to 18 cents higher and cotton is 35 to 45 points higher.

Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete provides report highlights:

 

Annual Production Summary

Corn: 13.601 billion bu.; trade expected 13.646 billion bu.
-- compares to 13.654 billion bu. in Nov.; 14.216 billion bu. in 2014
Beans: 3.930 billion bu., trade expected 3.981 billion bu.
-- compares to 3.981 billion bu. in Nov.; 3.927 billion bu. in 2014
Cotton: 12.94 million bales; trade expected 12.980 million bales
-- compares to 13.031 million bales in Dec.; 16.319 million ales in 2014

USDA dropped the national average corn yield 0.9 bu. per acre, to 168.4 bu. per acre. Harvested acres are now put at 80.749, up 85,000 acres from the November Crop Production Report, despite a 400,000-acre cut to estimated 2015 corn plantings. The result is a 53-million-bu. reduction to the 2015 corn crop compared to the November estimate. USDA cut estimated yields in Indiana (down 6 bu., to 150 bu. per acre), Michigan (5 bu., to 162 bu.) Missouri (3 bu., to 142 bu.), Nebraska (2 bu., to 185 bu.), North Dakota (1 bu., to 128 bu.), Ohio (10 bu., to 153 bu.), South Dakota (3 bu., to 159 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 1 bu. per acre, to 164 bu. per acre). Yield increases from November were reported in Illinois (up 7 bu., to 175 bu. per acre), Iowa (3 bu., to 192 bu.) and Minnesota (up 1 bu., to 188 bu. per acre). Yields were unchanged from November in Kansas (148 bu. per acre).

USDA dropped the national average soybean yield 0.3 bu. per acre, to 48.0 bu. per acre. Harvested acres were cut 580,000 from November and estimated planted soybean acres were slashed 500,000 from earlier estimates. The result is a 51-million-bu. cut to the 2015 bean crop estimate. USDA cut yields in Arkansas (down 2 bu., to 49 bu. per acre), Indiana (1 bu., to 50 bu.), Missouri (2.5 bu., to 40.5 bu.), North Dakota (0.5 bu., to 32.5 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 0.5 bu., to 49.5 bu. per acre). Yields were increased from November in Iowa (up 0.5 bu., to 56.5 bu. per acre), Kansas (0.5 bu., to 38.5 bu.), Michigan (1 bu., to 49 bu.) and Nebraska (up 2 bu., to 58 bu. per acre). Yields were unchanged from November in Illinois (56 bu.), Minnesota (50 bu.), Ohio (50 bu.) and South Dakota (46 bu. per acre).

USDA added 1 lb. back to the national average cotton yield, pushing it to 769 lbs. per acre. USDA also cut 72,400 from harvested acres, despite a 20,000-acre increase in estimated cotton plantings. The result was a 91,000-bale cut to the 2015 cotton crop.

 

Quarterly Grain Stocks

Corn: 11.212 billion bu.; trade expected 11.237 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.731 billion bu. Sept. 1; 11.211 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2014
Beans: 2.715 billion bu.; trade expected 2.720 billion bu.
-- compares to 191 million bu. Sept. 1; 2.528 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2014
Wheat: 1.738 billion bu.; trade expected 1.698 billion bu.
-- compares to 2.089 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.530 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2014

Corn stored in all positions on Dec. 1, 2015, were up just 1 million bu. from Dec. 1, 2014. Of the total stocks, 6.83 billion bu. are stored on farms, down 4% from year-earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 4.38 billion bu., are up 6% from year-ago. Disappearance in the first quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is implied at 4.12 billion bu., down from 4.24 billion bu. in the same period one year earlier.

Soybean stocks on Dec. 1, 2015, were up 7% from Dec. 1, 2014. On-farm stocks are estimated at 1.31 billion bu., up 8% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks are put at 1.41 billion bu., up 7% from year-ago. Indicated disappearance in the first quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is 1.41 billion bu., down 6% from year-earlier.

Wheat stocks on Dec. 1, 2015, are up 14% from Dec. 1, 2014. On-farm stocks are estimated at 503 million bu., up 6% from year-earlier. Off-farm stocks of 1.23 billion bu. are up 17% from year-earlier. Implied disappearance in the second quarter of the 2015-16 marketing year is 359 million bu., down 5% from the same period last year.

 

Winter Wheat Seedings

All winter wheat: 36.609 mil. acres; trade expected 39.320 mil. acres
-- compares to 39.461 mil. acres in 2014
HRW: 26.5 mil. acres; trade expected 28.810 mil. acres
-- compares to 28.978 mil. acres in 2014
SRW: 6.72 mil. acres; trade expected 7.144 mil. acres
-- compares to 7.087 mil. acres in 2014
White winter: 3.43 mil. acres; trade expected 3.366 mil. acres
-- compares to 3.396 mil. acres in 2014

All winter wheat seedings came in 2.852 million acres down from year-ago and 2.711 million acres below the average pre-report trade estimate. Hard red winter wheat acres were cut about 2.5 million acres from year-ago, soft red winter wheat acres are down about 370,000 from year-ago and white winter wheat acres are up about 40,000 acres from year-ago.

 

2015-16 U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.802 billion bu.; up from December proj. of 1.785 billion bu.
-- compares to 1.731 billion bu. in 2014-15
Beans: 440 million bu.; down from December proj. of 465 million bu.
-- compares to 191 million bu. in 2014-15
Wheat: 941 million bu.; up from December proj. of 911 million bu.
-- compares to 753 million bu. in 2014-15
Cotton: 3.1 million bales; up from December proj. of 3.0 million bales
-- compares to 3.7 million bales in 2014-15

Partially offsetting the smaller corn crop estimate was a 10-million-bu. increase in estimated corn imports, resulting in a 43-million-bu. cut to total supplies from December. On the demand side, USDA cut 10 million bu. from estimated food, seed & industrial use (6.570 billion bu.; corn-for-ethanol was unchanged at 5.2 billion bu.) and cut 50 million bu. from estimated exports (1.7 billion bushels). The end result is a 17-million-bu. increase in estimated 2015-16 corn carryover. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $3.30 to $3.90, down a nickel on both ends of the range from December.

The smaller bean crop estimate resulted in a 53-million-bu. drop in total supplies from last month. On the demand side, USDA cut 25 million bu. from estimated exports (1.690 billion bu.) and 2 million bu. from residual use (39 million bushels). Total use is off 27 million bu. from December, resulting in the 25-million-bu. cut to estimated 2015-16 soybean ending stocks. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $8.05 to $9.55, down a dime on both ends of the range from last month.

USDA increased estimated 2015-16 wheat carryover by 30 million bu. from December. There were no changes on the production side, but beginning stocks were cut 1 million bu. from December, to 752 million bushels. Estimated imports were also cut 5 million bu., resulting in a 6-million-bu. cut to total supplies. That cut to total supplies was completely offset by a 6-million-bu. cut to estimated seed use (the result of a sharp cut to winter wheat seedings). USDA also slashed 30 million bu. from estimated feed & residual use to push carryover up by that amount. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $4.90 to $5.10, up a dime on the bottom of the range from last month, but down a dime on the top end of the range.

Cotton carryover was increased 100,000 bales from last month. Total supplies were cut 90,000 bales from December. That was offset by a 100,000-bale cut to domestic use and a 90,000-bale cut to unaccounted use, resulting in the increase in carryover. USDA now puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 57 cents to 61 cents, up a penny on both ends of the range from December.
 

 

2015-16 global carryover

Corn: 208.94 MMT; down from December proj. of 211.85 MMT
-- compares to 207.23 MMT in 2014-15
Beans: 79.28 MMT; down from December proj. of 82.58 MMT
-- compares to 76.93 MMT in 2014-15
Wheat: 232.04 MMT; up from December proj. of 229.86 MMT
-- compares to 212.79 MMT in 2014-15
Cotton: 102.86 mil. bales; down from December proj. of 104.39 mil. bales
-- compares to 112.07 million bales in 2014-15

 

 

2015-16 global production highlights

Argentina beans: 57.0 MMT; compares to 57.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 61.4 MMT in 2014-15
Brazil beans: 100.0 MMT; compares to 100.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 96.2 MMT in 2014-15
Argentina wheat: 10.5 MMT; compares to 10.5 MMT in December
-- compares to 12.5 MMT in 2014-15
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT; compares to 26.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 23.67 MMT in 2014-15
China wheat: 130.19 MMT; compares to 130.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 126.21 MMT in 2014-15
Canada wheat: 27.6 MMT; compares to 27.6 MMT in December
-- compares to 29.42 MMT in 2014-15
EU wheat: 157.98 MMT; compares to 157.66 MMT in December
-- compares to 156.53 MMT in 2014-15
Russia wheat: 61.0 MMT; compares to 60.5 MMT in December
-- compares to 59.08 MMT in 2014-15
FSU-12 wheat: 117.53 MMT; compares to 117.03 MMT in December
-- compares to 112.73 MMT in 2014-15
China corn: 224.58 MMT; compares to 225.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 215.65 MMT in 2014-15
Argentina corn: 25.6 MMT; compares to 25.6 MMT in December
-- compares to 26.5 MMT in 2014-15
South Africa corn: 8.0 MMT; compares to 12.0 MMT in December
-- compares to 10.8 MMT in 2014-15
Brazil corn: 81.5 MMT; compares to 81.5 MMT in December
-- compares to 85.0 MMT in 2014-15
China cotton: 23.8 mil. bales; compares to 24.3 mil. bales in December
-- compares to 30.0 million bales in 2014-15

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