Extended Outlook Calls for Above-Normal Temps Across the U.S.

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast for July through September calls for above-normal temps across the country, with the exception of a small area in southeast Texas by the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, below-normal precip is favored in the Pacific Northwest, while above-normal precip is forecast for South Dakota, a portion of southern Minnesota, southern South Dakota and northwest Iowa, as well as along the Gulf of Mexico. However, for the remainder of the country, there are equal chances of normal, below- or above-normal precip.

In its lengthy text comments that accompany the long-term outlook, the CPC says the transition to La Nina conditions "and those potential effects are considered primarily beginning in ASO (August-October) 2016 and throughout the autumn and winter months."

CPC Outlooks for July-September:


The outlook for July calls for above-normal temps in all areas of the country expect for an area that includes most of Iowa southwestward into Texas. The Pacific Northwest is expected to be dry, while southeast Texas and southern Florida are expected to see above-normal precip. The rest of the country has equal chances of normal, below- or above-normal precip.

CPC Outlooks for July:


In its accompanying text for its July outlook, the CPC says dynamical models indicate increased likelihood of above-normal temps across most of the U.S., with the exception of parts of the Central and Southern Plains. It states above-normal precip that is favored for areas of southeast Texas and southern Florida are related to enhanced tropical activity.

Below, compare the Seasonal Drought Outlook to the current Drought Monitor:


In its Seasonal Drought Outlook (SDO), the CPC looks for drought to develop across the Pacific Northwest due to the dry summer outlook, while drought will persist south of that area throughout most of California. No drought is expected to linger across the Midwest despite the latest Drought Monitor showing the spread of drought in the eastern Corn Belt.

The seasonal outlook notes, "Although drought development or expansion is also possible during the next several weeks due to expected dry and warm weather (e.g. flash drought) in parts of the north-central Plains (D0-D2), Midwest (only D0) and Southeast (D0-D2), the possibility of wetter conditions later this summer prevented a SDO forecast (valid Sept. 30) of drought expansion in these regions; however, uncertainty of the wetness also precluded removal of drought, hence persistence was drawn."



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