Consultant Slashes Argentine Soybean Crop Amid Flooding

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says heavy rains over the weekend across central Argentina have resulted in flooding that is approaching or worse than what was seen last April that led to a significant reduction in harvested acreage. He says around 10% of the crop may be impacted by heavy rains. As a result, he slashed his estimate of the country's soybean crop by 4.0 MMT to 51.0 MMT and lowered his corn crop peg by 500,000 MT to 34.0 MMT.

"The lost hectares are some of the most productive in Argentina and once the area dries out, it will be too late to do any replanting. Therefore, the hectares that are currently flooded will probably be a complete loss," says Cordonnier. "The soybeans will be impacted more than the corn because the soybeans are shorter and more susceptible to flooding. There will be corn losses as well, but not as much because the earlier planted corn is full stature and past pollination and into grain filling."

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
103.0
105.0
100.0
95.5
Argentina
51.0
53.0
48.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
169.2
175.0
161.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
34.0
35.5
31.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
124.3
128.6
118.6
97.2


Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop pegs unchanged this week, but he has a neutral to higher bias going forward. "If they continue to receive rainfall in northeastern Brazil, I might increase my (soybean) estimate one or two million tons," he notes, adding that he plans on traveling to central Mato Grosso this weekend.


 

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