Consultant Shifts Brazil Bean Crop Basis to 'Neutral'

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:25 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his peg of the Brazilian soybean crop unchanged this week at 97 MMT, but has shifted his bias from "neutral to lower" to "neutral" after rains last week "stabilized" the later-planted and later-maturing soybeans. However, he said rains last week were too late for the early maturing or early planted soybeans in central Brazil.

"A question now is if the soybeans in southern Brazil will be able to compensate for some of the losses being anticipated in central and northeastern Brazil," says Cordonnier. "Farmers and agronomists in southern Brazil have all commented on the lack of sunshine due to the persistent wet weather. It is always hard to know ahead of time if cloudy weather will impact soybean yields. Most people feel the yields in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul will probably be a little lower than last year, but we won't know until the combines enter the fields."

Cordonnier also left his peg of the Brazilian corn crop at 81.2 MMT and he has a neutral bias toward the crop. "The full-season corn yields in southern Brazil will be good this year due to the abundant rainfall that started when the crop was in vegetative development. Even though the full-season corn acreage declined, the total production of full-season corn is expected to increase compared to last year," he adds.

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
97.0
100.0
92.0
96.2
Argentina
58.0
60.0
56.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.5
Total
170.3
176.4
162.2
171.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
81.2
84.0
78.0
85.4
Argentina
21.6
24.0
20.0
25.5
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
107.1
112.8
101.7
115.1


Cordonnier also left his Argentine soybean and crop crop pegs unchanged at 58 MMT and 21.6 MMT, respectively. As of late last week, farmers in Argentina had planted 93% of their intended soybean acreage according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. This represents an advance of 11% over the last two weeks and the soybean planting pace is now just slightly slower than last year.

Argentine farmers have planted approximately 84% of their intended corn acreage as of late last week according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, reports Cordonnier. "It is still possible that the corn acreage in Argentina might end up higher by the time the planting is complete, although I am a little less confident about that than I was several weeks ago," he adds. "The wet weather in northern Argentina slowed down the corn planting, but it is now drying out so farmers are getting back into the field. It still remains to be seen how this late planted corn develops in northern Argentina."


 

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