Consultant Raises U.S. Corn Yield, Soybeans Unchanged

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his U.S. corn yield peg from last week by 1 bu. per acre to 166 bu. per acre for a crop of 14.35 billion bu. due to last week's favorable weather. He notes dry soils in the southern Corn Belt have been replenished, with concerns about dry conditions shifting to Ohio and Michigan, where rainfall has been scarce.

"I am more confident about the corn crop, so therefore I increased the maximum for the crop by 2 bu. per acre to 172 bu. per acre," says Cordonnier. "In order to achieve that very lofty yield, we would need to see good rains in the dry areas of the eastern Corn Belt (Ohio and Michigan) and good rains in the dry areas of the western Corn Belt (parts of the Dakotas, Iowa, and Nebraska)."

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Cordonnier 2016 estimates
Harvested acreage
Avg. yield
Production
million
bu. per acre
billion bu.
Corn
86.5
166.0
14.35
Soybeans
83.0
46.7
3.92


Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his soybean yield estimate unchanged at 46.7 bu. per acre and says he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. "The temperatures continue to run hotter than normal and it looks like it will stay that way going forward. I am concerned about the high temperatures, but they don't bother me very much if there is adequate soil moisture and thus far, the soil moisture has been adequate," he says. "I hate to be indecisive and I am leaning toward increasing the soybean yield. I think we have to wait a little longer to see how the weather develops during the second half of July and early August."

Cordonnier notes the following areas of concern for the U.S. crops:

  • Dryness in parts of Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan.
  • Dryness in southern Iowa and parts of South Dakota and Nebraska.
  • Continued hotter-than-normal daytime temperatures.
  • Warm nighttime temperatures that could result in higher levels of dark respiration.

     

 

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