Consultant Raises U.S. Corn and Soybean Yield Pegs

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:21 AM

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says adequate soil moisture for most of the crop and more rain on the way gives him a neutral to higher bias for the U.S. corn and soybean crops after he raised his corn yield by 1 bu. per acre from last week to 169.0 bu. per acre and his soybean yield by 0.5 bu. per acre from last week to 47.2 bu. per acre.

After beneficial rains the first week of August, Cordonnier says the corn crop is only one or two more rains away from being safe from any potential moisture problems. "In the heart of the Corn Belt, it is hard to pinpoint any significant problems. Any potential problems for the corn crop are on the fringes of the production areas in Ohio, southeast Michigan and eastern Indiana," he says. "There are also some concerns in sections of South Dakota, Kansas, some areas of Nebraska and in the southern states. In other words, the corn crop is doing very well and it is hard to point to any significant problems."

Cordonnier 2016 estimates
Harvested acreage
Avg. yield
Production
million
bu. per acre
billion bu.
Corn
86.5
169.0
14.61
Soybeans
83.0
47.2
3.91


Meanwhile, Cordonnier says soybeans enter the critical pod-filling month on an upward trajectory. "I certainly think the downside of this crop has been minimized. The weather would have to change 180 degrees -- starting immediately -- and go into a hot and dry pattern for the remainder of August to have a significant negative impact on the crop. High temperatures do not negatively impact soybeans if there is adequate soil moisture," he says. "A good example is central Brazil where temperatures are consistently much hotter than the U.S., but they still produce very good soybean yields if the rainfall is adequate."

Cordonnier notes the following areas of concern for the U.S. crops:

  • Drier than normal soil moisture in parts of the eastern Corn Belt (Ohio, Michigan, and eastern Indiana) and drier than normal soil moisture in parts if the western Corn Belt (mainly South Dakota).
  • Very high daytime and nighttime temperatures that could impact the corn.
  • The potential for excessive dark respiration in the corn crop especially in the southern and western areas.
  • The fringe areas of the Corn Belt have not benefited as much from the recent rains.

 

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