Consultant Raises Brazilian Soybean Crop Estimate to 101 MMT

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:20 AM

 

South American crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his estimate of Brazil's 2016-17 soybean crop by 1 MMT from last week to 101 MMT, noting that planting is running ahead of schedule and farmers in southern Brazil may not switch as many of their full-season corn acres as originally expected. Around 11% of the crop has been planted, which compares to 10% on average and the emerged crop is in good condition. However, he notes that rains have been uneven and there are some concerns about dry conditions in Mato Grosso do Sul and Rio Grande do Sul. He now has a neutral bias toward the crop.

 

Cordonnier reports around 24% of 2016-17 soybeans have been forward sold compared to 40% last year at this time and 31% on average.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
101.0
104.0
97.0
95.5
Argentina
58.0
60.0
56.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
174.2
181.0
166.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
83.0
88.0
78.0
66.0
Argentina
35.0
38.0
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
122.3
131.6
113.6
97.2


Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 83 MMT and has a neutral bias toward the crop. He says planting of the full-season corn crop is about half complete, which is well ahead of the average pace of 35% for this time of year. But he notes, "The soil moisture in southern Brazil going into the spring planting was quite low and the recent dryness in Rio Grande do Sul is resulting in moisture stress for the earlier planted corn. Some farmers in Rio Grande do Sul are already worried that the corn yield potential might already be impacted. The forecast for this week is calling for the chance of showers across southern Brazil."

Cordonnier left his estimates for the Argentine crops unchanged at 58.0 MMT for soybeans and 35.0 MMT for corn. "The weather in Argentina last week was mixed but improved. Some of the drier areas did receive needed moisture, but more is needed especially in the western and northern areas of Argentina. The best soil moisture is found in the central and eastern areas," he notes.

Corn planting in Argentina is around 26% complete, compared to 23% on average. Soybean planting has not yet begun in the country.


 

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