Consultant Raises Brazilian Soybean and Argentine Corn and Soybean Peg

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:18 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says while central Brazil continues to be somewhat wet, farmers have managed to harvest soybeans between showers and rains have been beneficial for filling soybeans in northeastern Brazil. He says nationwide, harvest is around 20% complete compared to 16% last year. Cordonnier raised his peg of the Brazilian soybean crop by 1 MMT to a record-setting 105 MMT and has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.

Soybean yields in Mato Grosso continue to be very good, he says, with only an occasional report of lower quality soybeans. "The forecast for this week is for heavy rains in the far northern regions of Mato Grosso and scattered showers in central and southern Mato Grosso," Cordonnier says. "The harvest pace this week will depend on where you are located in the state. There will probably be limited harvesting in the northern part of the state and some harvest progress in the southern part of the state."

"Parana is the major state in Brazil that is furthest behind in their soybean harvest. The Department of Rural Economics (Deral) reported late last week that 6% of the soybeans in the state had been harvested compared to 17% last year," says Cordonnier. "Cold temperatures earlier in the growing season had delayed the development of the soybean crop. Yields are expected to be good with only minor reports of poor quality seed. Over the weekend, there were scattered showers on southern Brazil with more rain in the forecast for this week."

Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn crop peg unchanged at 86 MMT, with a neutral to higher bias going forward. He says full-season harvest is around 35% complete with yields generally better than expected. He says around 25% of the safrinha crop has been planted, with Mato Grosso around 47% planted, which is well ahead of the average pace.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
104.0
106.0
102.0
95.5
Argentina
52.0
55.0
50.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
171.2
178.0
165.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
34.0
35.5
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
124.3
128.6
119.6
97.2


Cordonnier raised his Argentine soybean crop peg by 2 MMT to 54 MMT and has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. He says since late-December flooding, the weather has been improving. But he says the situation remains confusing. "A significant number of hectares were lost due to flooding, but the estimates for the number of lost hectares varies widely," he notes, reminding the Rosario Grain Exchange pegs bean acreage at 18.24 million hectares, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has it at 19.2 million hectares.

All along Cordonnier has stated late-December flooding was more concerning for the soybean crop than for corn. He raised his Argentine corn crop peg by 2 MMT to 36 MMT and has a neutral to slightly higher bias toward the crop. "The early planted corn is filling grain and approaching maturity while the later planted corn is in vegetative development with some of the corn approaching pollination," he states. "A few early corn fields have been harvested with better-than-expected yields being reported. Certainly less than 1% of the corn in Argentina has been harvested. The later planted corn in northern Argentina is in vegetative development and the weather thus far in northern Argentina has generally been good."


 

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