Consultant Raises Brazilian Bean Crop Peg on 'Good' Early Yield Result

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:18 AM

 

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1 MMT to 104 MMT and has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. He says early yield reports are "generally good," but he remains "concerned about the continued wet weather and the potential impact on the crop."

 

As of Friday, AgRural reports 10% of the crop was harvested, which is in line with last year at this time and four percentage points more advanced than the five-year average. "The wet weather eased somewhat in Mato Grosso last week allowing for more soybeans to be harvested," notes Cordonnier, saying around 30% of the crop in the state has been harvested.

Cordonnier says while yields in Mato Grosso are strong, a lot of the crop is being harvested at high moisture and long lines are forming at grain dryers. "The forecast for this week is for more rain especially in northern Mato Grosso, which has farmers concerned," he says.

Meanwhile in Parana, just 3% of the crop has been harvested, which is well behind last year's 24% harvest pace. "Farmers are being advised to take every opportunity to harvest some soybeans even if the moisture content is higher than desirable," says Cordonnier. "It is better to pay for drying the beans instead of leaving them in the field. Early yield reports from northern Parana indicate 3% moldy soybeans and with three or four more days of rain, that could increase to 6%, which could trigger discounts when the soybeans are sold."

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
104.0
106.0
102.0
95.5
Argentina
52.0
55.0
50.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
171.2
178.0
165.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
34.0
35.5
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
124.3
128.6
119.6
97.2


Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn estimate unchanged at 86 MMT, but has a neutral to higher bias going forward. He says full-season corn harvest is 6% complete compared to 17% last year. Meanwhile, AgRural says 14% of the safrinha crop has been planted, which is equal to last year. "I am always very conservative when it comes to guessing the potential of the safrinha corn crop in Brazil because it is a 'high risk' crop," he says. "The risk in Mato Grosso is for the early onset of dry weather before the crop has completed grain filling. The risk in Parana are for episodes of cold temperatures before the crop is mature."

Additionally, Cordonnier says long-range forecasts are worrisome for the safrinha corn crop in Brazil, as they call for above-normal temps and below-normal precip in central and southern Brazil when the crop will be pollinating and filling grain. But he notes the forecast for Mato Grosso and Parana is not as worrisome.

Cordonnier also left his Argentine crop estimates unchanged. He has a neutral to higher bias toward the soybean crop and a neutral bias toward the corn crop. "The recent weather in Argentina has been favorable for stabilizing the (soybean) crop. The saturated areas of central Argentina have had the opportunity to dry out a little while the droughty areas of southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa have received some moderate showers," he says. "As a result, most of the early planted soybeans should enter the critical reproductive phase generally in favorable condition."


 

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