Consultant Raises Argentine Soybean Crop Estimate

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his Argentine soybean crop estimate by 500,000 MT to 60.5 MMT and says the peg may move even higher, but he wants to see harvest progress before doing so. He says harvest is just getting started, but should increase with a more favorable near-term forecast. He left his Argentine corn crop estimate unchanged at 25 MMT, but says he has a higher bias as better-than-expected yield reports.

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
100.0
103.0
98.0
96.2
Argentina
60.5
62.0
59.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
Total
175.8
181.4
171.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
84.0
87.0
81.0
85.4
Argentina
25.0
27.0
23.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
113.3
118.8
107.7
116.2


Meanwhile, soybean harvest in Brazil is around 67% complete, with Mato Grosso 92% complete and Parana 88% harvested. He left his crop peg unchanged at 100 MMT and has a neutral bias going forward.

Cordonnier also left his Brazilian corn crop peg unchanged at 84 MMT, but has a neutral to higher bias going forward as the safrinha crop has been planted and is in good to very good condition. "Most of the safrinha corn in Brazil is in vegetative development with the most advanced corn already pollinating or starting to fill grain," he says. "Even though much of the safrinha corn was planted later than normal, the weather thus far has been favorable and the crop is rated in good condition."

Conab is estimating Brazil's safrinha corn acreage will increase by just 1.8% from last year, but Cordonnier says he is more optimistic and expects around a 5% increase. "Unfortunately, I don't think Conab does as good a job monitoring the safrinha corn acreage as they do the soybean crop or the full-season corn crop, so we never quite know the actual safrinha corn acreage," he says.

Cordonnier points out meteorologists in Brazil expect the rainy season in central Brazil to end the second half of April, which would be at least a month earlier than the last several years. "They are also forecasting that cold weather may move into the states of Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul during May, increasing the chances of frost before the corn is mature," he adds. "If these forecasts turn out to be true, the safrinha corn yield may be down more than just 0.5% compared to last year."


 

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