Consultant Raises Argentine Corn and Soybean Crop Pegs

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:25 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has raised his Argentine soybean and corn estimates by 1 MMT and 2 MMT, respectively, from last week. He has had a neutral to higher bias toward both crops for several weeks and says good growing conditions and the potential for more corn acres are behind his higher estimates.

Cordonnier says soybean planting in Argentina is 97% complete and early planted soybeans are flowering and starting to set pods. "The farmers in Argentina appear to have increased their corn acreage in response to new government policies, but it does not look like they have increased their soybean acreage in the same way. Therefore, the soybean acreage remains unchanged from previous estimates," he says, noting he raised his corn acreage estimate by 200,000 hectares.

"Farmers in Argentina are still planting corn and most of the additional corn is being planted very late and outside of the ideal planting window," says Cordonnier. "In recent years I was worried about the yield prospects for late-planted corn in Argentina, but the yields of the late-planted corn turned out to be very good, so I am not going to worry about the yields unless we see a significant change in the weather patterns in northern Argentina."

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
97.0
100.0
92.0
96.2
Argentina
59.0
60.0
57.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.5
Total
171.3
176.4
164.2
171.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
81.2
84.0
78.0
85.4
Argentina
23.6
26.0
22.0
25.5
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
109.1
114.8
103.7
115.1


Cordonnier left his Brazilian corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged from last and has a neutral bias toward the crops. He says early soybean harvest continues at a slow pace. He says wet conditions in central Brazil are leading to concerns about poor seed quality. "Most of the yield (reports) thus far have been sub-par, which was expected because the early maturing soybeans were impacted the most by the dry weather in November and December," he adds.

Additionally, he says farmers in southern Brazil have started to harvest some of their full-season corn with good results, but the Brazilian corn crop will depend on what happens with the safrinha crop.


 

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