Consultant: More Downside Risk for Brazil Corn and Argentine Soybean Crops

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier says there is more downside risk to this year's Brazilian corn and Argentine soybean crops moving forward based on unfavorable weather. He trimmed the Brazilian corn crop estimate by 1 MMT to 78 MMT, saying last week's rains barely "settled the dust" and a drier pattern has been reestablished this week. He lowered the Argentine soybean crop by another 1 MMT to 56 MMT and says the estimate could still be trimmed another 2 MMT to 3 MMT due to poor seed quality.

Mato Grosso is the largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil and most of the safrinha corn in the state will be about average or slightly below average, says Cordonnier. "The corn that will be impacted the most will be the later planted corn and the corn in the southern and eastern part of the state where the rainfall has been the lightest," he adds.

Regarding soybean production prospects in Argentina, Cordonnier says the situation is still undetermined, with recent harvest progress outside of the flood-impacted region. Harvest is just 24% complete, well behind 62% last year at this time. "The problem in Argentina is trying to estimate how many acres of soybeans were flooded and the extent of the losses in those flooded areas. It is estimated that about one-third of the soybeans will have record yields this year because of the very good growing season and the lack of flooding during April," he says. "Another one-third of the crop could still have decent yields, but there could also be significant problems with lower quality. The last one-third of the crop could either be a complete loss or have very significant damage due to the extent of the flooding. It is this last one-third of the crop that is still unknown."

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
98.0
99.0
97.0
96.2
Argentina
56.0
57.0
53.0
61.4
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.1
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
2.5
2.7
2.2
3.1
Total
168.3
171.3
163.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
82.0
80.0
75.0
85.4
Argentina
25.0
26.0
23.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
111.3
110.8
101.7
116.2


Cordonnier left his Brazil soybean crop and Argentine corn crop pegs unchanged from last week, but has a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward.


 

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