Consultant Lowers Corn Yield Projection, Notes Areas of Concern

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:22 AM

Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier is starting to get concerned about the drying trend in the southern and eastern Corn Belt regions given the forecast for warmer-than-normal temps for the growing season. As a result, he has lowered his corn yield projection by 1 bu. per acre from last week to 165 bu. per acre and has a neutral to lower bias going forward.

"My concern is that some corn is going to be moisture stressed prior to pollination when the corn plant is determining ear size," he says. "Once the size of the ear is determined, it can't get any bigger, so stress during pre-pollination can result in lower yields. I think that is probably already occurring in eastern Kansas, northern Missouri, southern Iowa, western Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan."

Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his soybean yield estimate unchanged from last week at 46.7 bu. per acre, but says he has a neutral to slightly lower bias going forward. "One of my concerns for the soybeans is that some of the hottest and driest conditions are in areas where farmers will plant double-crop soybeans," he says. "If these conditions persist, there could be problems getting the double-crop soybeans to germinate and getting a stand established. There are already reports of late-planted soybeans in some of the southern areas that are sitting in dry soil waiting for moisture."

Cordonnier 2016 estimates
Planted acreage
Harvested acreage
Avg. yield
Production
in billion bushels
Corn
92.5
84.8
165.0
13.99
Soybeans
84.5
83.6
46.7
3.90


Cordonnier notes the following areas of concern for the U.S. crops:

  • Hot temps and declining soil moisture especially in the southern and eastern Corn Belt.
  • Soil moisture rated 30% to 50% short to very short across the southern Corn Belt and eastern Corn Belt.
  • The potential for moisture deficits to develop during pre-pollination in southern areas.
  • The potential for double-crop soybeans to be planted in dry soils, which could delay germination and stand establishment.
  • A few areas of too much moisture in Minnesota and North Dakota resulting in localized flooding and drowned out crops.

 

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