Consultant Lowers Brazil's Corn and Soybean Crop Estimates

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:23 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has lowered his Brazilian soybean crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to 98.5 MMT and has a neutral to lower bias moving forward due to "very disappointing yields being reported in northeastern Brazil." He also states concerns about heavy rains in Rio Grande do Sul that are hampering the crop and slowing harvest.

Cordonnier also lowered his Brazilian corn crop peg by 1 MMT to 83 MMT due to the recent shift to hot and dry weather that's stressing the safrinha crop. "I have been worried about the safrinha corn crop in Brazil for several weeks, but I kept my estimate unchanged mainly because I was already on the low end of the estimates," he says. "With the weather in April now turning out to be hot and dry, I thought it was time to be a little more conservative... and I have a lower bias going forward."

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
98.5
100.0
97.0
96.2
Argentina
60.5
62.0
59.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
Total
174.3
178.4
170.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
83.0
86.0
78.0
85.4
Argentina
25.0
27.0
23.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
112.3
117.8
104.7
116.2


Meanwhile, Cordonnier left his Argentine corn and soybean crop pegs unchanged at 25 MMT and 60.4 MMT, respectively. He has a neutral to higher bias moving forward. "The corn crop in Argentina is very good, but I don't think it's quite as good as the soybeans," he says. "There are a few areas in northern Buenos Aires that encountered some hot and dry conditions when the corn was pollinating. Having said that, if the nationwide corn yield improves again next week, I could increase the production estimate another million tons."


 

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