Crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier again left his U.S. corn and soybean crop production estimates unchanged this week. He has a neutral bias going forward for corn, which unchanged from last week. On soybeans, he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward, which is a switch from a neutral last week.
"There is a lot of talk in the market about the record high ear weights used in the August crop report and if the ear weights will decline in future reports," says Cordonnier, noting the concern the heat seen this summer will trim ear weights. "There have been many comments the temperatures this summer have been very similar to those of 2010 with the speculation that the yields will decline in later reports as they did in 2010," he continues. The average corn yield was 165.0 bu. per acre in USDA's August 2010 report. It fell to 152.8 bu. per acre in USDA's January 2011 report, he notes.
|Cordonnier 2016 estimates|| |
bu. per acre
For soybeans, Cordonnier says August weather continues to be "very good" for the crop. "Most areas of the Corn Belt continue to have ample soil moisture for the crop," he states. "I actually think there is an upside potential for the yields and I would not be surprised to see a slightly larger soybean yield estimate in the September crop report," he says. "The one negative is the potential that some of the soybean acreage could be lost due to flooding and ponding caused by the heavy rains in the Delta and parts of the eastern Corn Belt," he notes.