Consultant Leaves Argentine Crop Pegs Unchanged, But Could Decline

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:19 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier has left his South American crop estimates unchanged, but says the Argentine corn and soybean crop pegs could decline due to recent heavy rains and localized flooding. He reminds that weather has been volatile so far this growing season, with conditions during October wet, followed by dry weather during November and early December before heavy rains returned.

Some replanting will need to be done, says Cordonnier, but the planting window for soybeans closes around January 10. "If a farmer is desperate, they could stretch that out another 10 to 14 days, but not beyond that," he says. "The concern is if the area will dry up enough in order to allow planting before the time runs out... A field with a foot of water on it would take one to two weeks of dry weather before any replanting could be attempted, providing there is no additional rainfall."

Cordonnier estimates around 85% of the soybean crop and 71% of the corn crop is planted. "I think there is a strong possibility that not all of the intended soybeans will be planted in Argentina," he says. "This would include double-crop soybeans that may not get planted and drowned out soybeans that may not get replanted."

Around 1.4 million hectares of corn in Argentina is still unplanted, which does not include acreage that needs to be replanted. "The time to plant corn in central Argentina has long passed, so it remains to be seen if the farmer will replant the corn that was flooded," says Cordonnier.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
103.0
105.0
100.0
95.5
Argentina
56.0
58.0
54.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
174.2
180.0
167.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
86.0
92.0
84.0
66.0
Argentina
35.0
38.0
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
125.3
135.6
119.6
97.2


Cordonnier left his Brazilian crop pegs unchanged this week and has a neutral bias toward the crops. He notes yields have been higher than expected of early maturing soybeans in Mato Grosso and harvest is expected to ramp up this week.

Regarding corn in Brazil, Cordonnier says full-season corn production will be very good, but not quite as good as previously expected due to dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul. "Hopes are very high for the safrinha corn crop in Brazil. With a few fields of soybeans already harvested in Mato Grosso, there are probably also a few fields of safrinha corn already planted," he notes.


 

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