Consultant: Brazilian Soybean Crop Off to Better-Than-Average Start

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:20 AM

South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his corn and soybean crop estimates unchanged this week, but has a neutral to higher bias toward the Brazilian crops and the Argentine corn crop. Specifically, he says Brazil's soybean crop is off to a better-than-average start. According to AgRural, soybean planting in Brazil is 41% complete, which is one point more advanced than the average pace. However, soybean planting in Mato Grosso is 67% complete, with 25% planted in the latest week.

In fact, Cordonnier says some farmers in Mato Grosso are concerned soybean planting is progressing too quickly. "Their concern stems from the fact that if the planting is concentrated in a narrow window, then the harvest will also be concentrated in a narrow window," he says, noting that based on planting progress, 25% of the state's crop will be harvested in January, compared to 10% on average.

AgRural reports 52% of Brazil's full-season corn crop has been planted, compared to 56% on average. "The corn planting pace is being slowed down by dry weather in the state of Minas Gerais, which is essentially tied with Rio Grande do Sul for the most full-season corn acreage," notes Cordonnier.

Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
101.0
104.0
97.0
95.5
Argentina
58.0
60.0
56.0
56.0
Paraguay
9.1
10.0
8.5
9.0
Bolivia
3.1
3.5
2.7
3.0
Uruguay
3.0
3.5
2.7
2.0
Total
174.2
181.0
166.9
165.5
Dr. Cordonnier 2016-17
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2015-16

in million metric tons

Brazil
83.0
88.0
78.0
66.0
Argentina
35.0
38.0
32.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.2
4.0
2.7
3.1
Bolivia
0.7
1.0
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.4
0.6
0.3
0.4
Total
122.3
131.6
113.6
97.2


Cordonnier left his Argentine crop estimates unchanged. He says soybean planting is progressing slowly due to heavy rains, and is around 2% to 4% complete, which compares to 5% on average.

"Farmers in Argentina generally do not like to plant corn during the month of November because if they did, the corn would be pollinating during January, which can be the hottest and driest time of the summer," reminds Cordonnier. "The Argentine corn planting is currently at 36% and it will probably only advance about 2% per week until the end of November. In early December, the farmers will start on the second phase of corn plating which will terminate in late January."


 

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