Brazil's Soybean Harvest Crosses Halfway Mark

Posted on 03/09/2017 10:24 AM

Brazil's soybean harvest crossed the halfway mark last week at 52% complete, says South American Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier, noting dry weather in southern Brazil helped to offset a slower pace of harvest in central Brazil due to wetter conditions. He says rains in northeastern Brazil will benefit later-planted soybeans, but rains came too late for earlier planted soybeans.

Cordonnier left his Brazilian soybean crop peg unchanged again this week at 100 MMT, which is lower than many analysts. "One of the main reasons why I have kept my Brazilian soybean estimate lower than many analysts was specifically due to the adverse conditions in northeastern Brazil, which produces about 10% of Brazil's soybeans," he notes.

Meanwhile, Cordonnier says estimates for Brazil's safrinha corn crop are starting to decline. He notes that Conab's latest peg of safrinha corn acreage for a 1.8% increase over the previous year was lower than expected, with a crop peg of 55.28 MMT, compared to 54.59 MMT in 2014-15. Additionally, forecasts for central Brazil's rainy season to end the second half of April -- about a month earlier than last year -- would not be good news for the late-planted safrinha corn crop in Mato Grosso, he says.

Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16 Soybean Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
100.0
103.0
98.0
96.2
Argentina
60.0
62.0
59.0
60.8
Paraguay
8.8
9.3
8.3
8.4
Bolivia
3.0
3.3
2.7
2.6
Uruguay
3.5
3.8
3.2
3.1
Total
175.3
181.4
171.2
171.4
Dr. Cordonnier 2015-16
Corn Estimates
Est.
Maximum
Minimum
2014-15

in million metric tons

Brazil
84.0
87.0
81.0
85.4
Argentina
25.0
27.0
23.0
27.0
Paraguay
3.1
3.4
2.7
3.0
Bolivia
0.7
0.8
0.6
0.7
Uruguay
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.5
Total
113.3
118.8
107.7
116.2


Cordonnier left his Argentine crop pegs unchanged from last week, but he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward as the soybean crop is filling under nearly ideal conditions and there have been no major problems for the corn crop. He says harvest could begin next week for the most advanced soybeans.


 

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